PAI Blog > Monthly Jobs Briefs
Progress is Sputtering for Vermont’s Jobless
Vermont’s labor force continued to shrink in April. While there were fewer people officially unemployed—which helped to push down the unemployment rate—the number of Vermonters who had jobs also decreased. Seasonally adjusted employment in April was down slightly from January, but up about 
3,500 from April 2011.
More big layoffs last year
Vermont saw a jump in extended mass layoffs in 2011. A mass layoff occurs when an employer lets go 50 or more people within a five-week period. To be counted as extended, at least 50 of those people have to be out of work for at least 30 days. In 2009, in the depths of the recession, more than 5,700 Vermonters lost jobs as the result of 35 extended mass layoffs. The number dropped in 2010, but last year saw 27 extended mass layoffs, hitting almost 4,500 people. The bulk of those layoffs happened in the spring, before Tropical Storm Irene arrived.
Smaller average paychecks
A slight decrease in the average workweek and essentially no change in average hourly wages meant that Vermonters’ average weekly earnings dipped a little in 2011. That was the average of all private sector workers, but the story varied by sector. Professional and business services saw the biggest increase in weekly earnings last year, about 6.5 percent; earnings also rose in manufacturing. The other major sectors experienced declines.
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While Joblessness Persists, Help for the Unemployed Wanes
The number of Vermonters in the labor force—employed and unemployed—decreased last month after rising steadily since last July, according to seasonally adjusted data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate ticked down in March, even though fewer Vermonters had jobs. Only workers who are actively looking for work or waiting to be recalled after a layoff are considered unemployed and counted in the labor force. 
Discouraged workers who have stopped looking are not counted.
Fewer jobless claims
Vermont had the fourth-lowest unemployment rate in the country in March, even as more than 4,500 workers filed new claims for unemployment compensation. Initial unemployment claims hit a peak in December 2008, when more than 8,600 Vermonters filed. Typically, first-time jobless claims rise during the winter months and drop in the summer. The number of applicants at the peaks has declined since the recession officially ended, and the monthly average of new claims has fallen for two years.
The end of extended unemployment benefits
Barring a sudden spike in unemployment, Vermonters will no longer be eligible for extended unemployment compensation after the end of this year. In the depths of the recession, jobless workers who had used up their 26 weeks of regular unemployment compensation could qualify for federal emergency unemployment compensation programs (EUC08 Tiers I-III) and a state program that together provided up to 60 weeks of additional compensation. After May, the Tier II program—providing 14 weeks’ benefits—will not be available in states with unemployment rates lower than 6 percent. All EUC08 programs are scheduled to expire at the end of 2012.
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Joblessness Dips Below 5 Percent, But Many Still Want Work
Vermont’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate inched down again in February—to below 5 percent. That makes two full years with no increase in the rate and the biggest number of Vermonters employed in five years—342,900. While this employment level doesn’t account for the increase in population over that 
period, it’s welcome news: Vermont appears to be crawling out of the deep hole created by the Great Recession.
Discouraged and underemployed
That below-5-percent February unemployment rate was the “official” (U-3) rate, which excludes certain workers. The broadest measure of unemployment—U-6—counts people who have stopped looking for work and those who are employed part time but would like to work more. Vermont’s U-6 rate declined in 2011—to 11.6 percent from a high of 12.5 percent the previous year. But this broad measure of unemployment was still double the official unemployment rate.
Slow growth in tax receipts
When people are out of work, income tax receipts take a dive. That’s what happened in Vermont when the economy collapsed. The recession officially began in the middle of fiscal 2008, when Vermont collected $622 in personal income taxes. The figure dropped below $500 million in the depths of the recession. It’s been slowly growing since then. But receipts won’t be back to pre-recession levels until fiscal 2013, when they are forecast reach $642 million.
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Jobs: Better, But a Bit Less Better Than Reported
Vermont didn’t experience the same job growth in January that was seen at the national level. But the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate did tick down to 5 percent, and 717 more Vermonters were working than in the previous month. Still, more than 18,000 people were counted as unemployed, which
didn’t include those who stopped looking for work.
A new normal for joblessness?
At 5.6 percent, Vermont’s annual unemployment rate for 2011 was the fifth lowest in the country. But it was higher than Vermonters are used to. The annual rate has been lower than 5.0 percent during 22 of the last 30 years. And unemployment is not falling as quickly as it did following the recessions of the early 1980s or early 1990s. The 2000s were a dismal decade for job creation in Vermont even before the recession hit in December 2007. And employers haven’t yet replaced all the jobs lost since then.
The winter blues, rearranged
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has just finished its annual benchmark adjustments, and it turns out that Vermont had fewer jobs last year than originally thought. A year ago, BLS reported Vermont had almost 305,000 jobs in January, February, and March. The new revised figures show just under 300,000 during that period. Vermont’s unemployment numbers also were revised. The new numbers show somewhat higher unemployment for the first half of 2011, but somewhat lower in the second half.
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For Vermonters, It’s Still Cold Outside
In spite of a slight rise in manufacturing jobs last year, Vermont lost more than 28 percent of the jobs in this sector in the past decade. One reason: competition from abroad. According to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest international survey of manufacturing wages, Vermont’s average manufacturing wage was lower than much of Europe’s in 2010, but more than twice as high as in some low-wage countries. Wages for China were not included in this survey.
Low fuel tanks in a mild winter
A record number of Vermonters are in need of heating fuel assistance this winter. The state projects that more than 40,000 households will be eligible for one of the four programs offered through the Low Income Heating Assistance Program (LIHEAP). That’s nearly double the number receiving assistance in 2007, before the start of the Great Recession. And because the federal government has cut its funding for the program, eligible households are getting less help.
Illusory unemployment rate drop
Vermont’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked down again in December, but not because more Vermonters found jobs. The rate went from 5.3 percent in November to 5.1 percent in December. However, there were both fewer employed workers and fewer unemployed workers actively seeking work last month; the Vermont labor force, which is the sum of the two, 
lost over 1,000 people. The official jobless rate declined, but the job market didn’t get any better.
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Vermont Employment Climbs Another Rung
Unemployment dropped in Vermont and 42 other states in November. Vermont’s seasonally adjusted rate went from 5.6 percent in October to 5.3 percent last month, which the U.S. Labor Department called a statistically significant change. The number of unemployed Vermonters dropped from 20,320 in October to 19,074 in November. Meanwhile, 1,645 more Vermonters were working last month than in October.
An historic record for joblessness
While Vermont’s unemployment rate continues to move in the right direction, this is the first time in 30 years that the rate has remained at 5 percent or higher for this long. November marked the 37th straight month with an unemployment rate of at least 5 percent. In the early 1990s, the rate stayed this high for 35 months. And in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the rate was 5 percent or higher for almost five years (58 months).
Minimum wage: almost $8.50
Vermont is one of eight states where the minimum wage will rise automatically on Jan. 1, 2012. In 2005, the Vermont Legislature voted to link the minimum wage to inflation to help workers keep up with the rising cost of living. Seven other states also routinely adjust their minimum wage. On Jan. 1, Vermont’s minimum wage will go up 31 cents, to $8.46 an hour.
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Vermont Takes A Small Optimistic Turn in Employment
Vermont’s private employers are again creating more jobs than they’re eliminating. That’s according to the latest figures from the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, which cover the 12 months between March 2010 and March 2011. Most of the new jobs come from expanding businesses rather than startups. In 2008 and 2009, employers cut more jobs than they created, so unemployment rose. But even before the recession hit, Vermont’s private sector wasn’t generating as many new jobs as it did in the 1990s.
Still plenty of competition . . .
Bureau of Labor Statistics data show there are still nearly four unemployed workers for every job opening in the Northeast. That’s bad news for seasonal workers, since the Shumlin administration recently announced new rules designed to reduce unemployment compensation for them. Now such workers have to look for employment within 10 weeks even if they have a commitment to return to work at a date further in the future.
. . . but more work to be found
Vermont’s unemployment rate ticked down from 5.8 percent in September to 5.6 percent in October. A lower unemployment rate doesn’t always mean more people are working: people who have stopped looking for work aren’t counted. After four months of decline, the number of 
Vermonters with jobs has increased for two consecutive months.
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Vermont Slogs Through the Slowest Recovery
in 40 Years
Almost four years after the start of the last recession, the number of non-farm jobs is still 6,600 below Vermont’s 2007 peak. That makes this the slowest recovery of the last five recessions, dating back to the early 1970s. Officially, the recession that started in December 2007 ended in June 2009. But Vermont employers still have not replaced the jobs that were eliminated during the downturn, let alone create new ones for new workers entering the labor market.
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An Employment Boost From Government
Vermont gained 700 jobs overall in September, thanks to 900 new public-sector jobs, according to data released today by the Vermont Department of Labor. The private sector lost 200 jobs last month, primarily in manufacturing, construction, and trade, transportation, and utilities. At 5.8 percent,
the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate showed little change from August.
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How Vermonters Commute
More than 314,000 Vermonters commute to work, and about three-quarters of them drove by themselves in 2010, according to new U.S. Census data. Just under 10 percent shared the ride last year—a drop from 2008, when more than 11 percent carpooled. The number of telecommuters is on the rise, however. At-home workers increased to 7.4 percent in 2010 from 5.4 percent in 2006.
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Vermont Jobs: More is Still Not Enough
Vermont added 1,400 seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs in August, according to data released by the Vermont Department of Labor today. At the same time the state’s unemployment rate ticked up for the fourth month in a row, to 5.9 percent in August from 5.7 percent in July. “While Vermont is continuing to show job growth, it doesn’t appear to be enough to push down unemployment,” says economist Jeffrey Thompson of the Political Economy Research Institute 
at the University of Massachusetts.
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Help Needed to Fill the Fridge
Officially, the recession ended more than two years ago. But Vermonters still struggle to put food on the table. Before the start of the recession, about 52,000 Vermonters received food stamps each month through 3SquaresVT. During fiscal 2011, which ended in June, food stamp recipients averaged about 90,000 a month. Since the official end of the recession, with thousands of Vermonters still out of work, demand for food stamps has increased 36 percent.
Multiple Jobs = One Livelihood
For at least 10 years, Vermont has led the New England states in the percentage of workers with more than one job, which might explain the state’s relatively low unemployment rate. The number of Vermonters with multiple jobs declined during the recession, from 32,000 in 2007 to 27,000 in 2009. If those 5,000 people had become unemployed instead of going to just one job, Vermont’s 2009 unemployment rate would have been 8.3 percent, not 6.9 percent—and much closer to the national average.
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If It’s a Trend, It Doesn’t Look Good for Vermont
Vermont’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose in July—the third month in a row. Jobs and employment data come from surveys, so changes in a single month are imprecise. But the three-month rise is cause for worry that Vermont’s recovery is stalling. The number of employed Vermonters dropped in July, and the number of unemployed rose; the unemployment rate increased to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent in June. The news wasn’t all bad, however: Private sector, nonfarm jobs rose by 1,200 in July, including 400 in manufacturing. Unfortunately, those gains were cancelled out by the loss of 1,300 public sector jobs.
Lots of action signifying little
Monthly job reports are net numbers that typically show a gain or loss of a few hundred jobs, occasionally 1,000 or more. In fact, Vermont employers create thousands of jobs every quarter, but during the recession more have been lost than gained. For seasonal businesses, the same job may open and close a couple of times a year. If the changes occur in different quarters, each opening or closing shows up as a gain or loss in that quarter’s numbers. The latest figures, released this month, show that job gains exceeded losses for the last two quarters of 2010.
Bad news: More sexual equality
The gap between wages for Vermont men and women closed slightly in 2010—but for the wrong reasons. The real median wage for women—that is, adjusted for inflation—didn’t fall quite as much as the real median wage for men. Census data show the real median wage for men, in 2010 dollars, dropped to $17.37 an hour in 2010 from $18.24 the previous year. Meanwhile, the real median wage for women in Vermont dropped to $15.27 in 2010 from $15.34 the year before.
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Small Gains Struggle Against a Stubborn Jobs Trend
Vermont gained jobs again in June, making up for much of the loss in May. Vermont added 2,800 non-farm jobs and was one of only a dozen states that had statistically significant growth last month. Despite this growth, however, Vermont’s unemployment rate rose slightly for the second month in row, to 5.5 percent in June from 5.4 percent the previous month. The number of unemployed Vermonters increased by 349, and the labor force shrank by 1,581.
Worse Than Ten Years Ago
With almost a 1 percent increase in non-farm jobs in June, Vermont did better than many other states. Over the past year—June 2010 to June 2011—Vermont also generated relatively more jobs than most other states. But viewed through a longer lens, the picture looks bleak. Figures released today show Vermont had 302,200 non-farm jobs (seasonally adjusted) in June 2011—700 fewer than 10 years earlier. This poor performance followed a decade—June 1991 to June 2001—when more than 50,000 jobs were added.
Where the Pay is Higher—or Not
The average wage paid in Chittenden County last year was 50 percent higher than the average wage in Essex County. New figures for 2010 released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that average annual wages in Vermont ranged from a low of $30,887 in Essex County to a high of $46,216 in Chittenden County. Washington County had the second-highest annual wage at $40,893. The averages are based on wages paid in all sectors, private and public. The average annual wage statewide was $39,430 last year, 1.7 percent higher than in 2009.
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Tougher Job Market for Vermont’s Unemployed
Vermont’s big winter job gains were offset by spring losses, according to figures released today. Vermont lost 3,500 seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs in May—on top of 1,800 in April. That was the biggest two-month loss since 1990. Jobs created last January and February also set a record—the best two-month gain in two decades. While the rise and fall was tied to the excellent ski season, it won’t be clear until later this summer how much. Vermont’s unemployment rate inched up, 
from 5.3 percent in April to 5.4 percent in May. However, that change was not considered statistically significant.
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More job-seekers, fewer jobs
The job market appears to be weakening in the Northeast. Competition for new jobs rose in April, after declining since the start of the year. According to the latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in April more than four unemployed workers in the Northeast were competing for every job opening. The number of unemployed dropped, but positions fell sharply too—nearly 20 percent. More than 2.2 million workers were unemployed in April, chasing just 542,000 job openings. The Northeast region includes the New England states, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The BLS does not track Vermont’s job openings separately.
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Population growth outpacing employment
New Census figures show Vermont’s working-age population—ages 18 to 64—grew almost 6 percent in the last decade. Job creation, however, didn’t keep pace. In 2000 Vermont had jobs for 78 percent of the working-age population. To maintain that ratio, employers should have added about 18,000 jobs during the decade. Instead, the state saw modest gains in the mid-2000s, which were wiped out by the recession. By 2010, Vermont had lost ground, with 1,100 fewer non-farm jobs than there were 10 years earlier.
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No New Life in Springtime Employment
Vermont experienced a sharp drop of 2,200 non-farm jobs in April, according to preliminary figures released Friday by the Vermont Department of Labor. Most of the losses—1,900—were in the private sector, which had been gaining jobs since late last summer. Meanwhile, Vermont’s unemployment rate remained essentially unchanged. It inched down to 5.3 percent last month from 5.4 percent in March, primarily because 400 unemployed workers dropped out of the labor force. The number of employed Vermonters held steady from March to April.
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With the Snowmelt, a Major Jobmelt
A lot of the private sector losses in April occurred in the tourism-related sectors. Vermont hotels and restaurants typically shed jobs each year after the snow melts. But this year the drop was bigger than usual, even after the numbers were adjusted for the season. The seasonally adjusted loss was 1,500, the largest in the last decade.
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More Ground Lost in Government Jobs
April’s private sector employment suffered a setback after steady gains through the fall and winter. It’s also possible these preliminary numbers will be adjusted next month to show a smaller drop. Meanwhile, the number of public sector jobs has been on a downward trend since last summer. Vermont has lost about 700 seasonally adjusted public sector jobs in the last two months, and the total of federal, state, and local government jobs in April was slightly below the number of public sector jobs at the start of the recession.
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The Job Recovery is More Than Halfway There
Vermont’s private-sector employers have added nearly 10,000 jobs since the depths of the recession, with almost two-thirds of that growth in just the last four months. But Vermont still needs 4,100 more jobs to get the private sector back to where it was before the start of the recession. In the meantime, the working-age population has increased. To replace the lost jobs and match the population growth, Vermont needs nearly 259,000 private-sector jobs—8,000 more than there were last month.
Unemployment Insurance: The Stimulus Effect
Unemployment insurance helps people who are out of work through no fault of their own. It also preserves jobs by enabling unemployed workers to continue to buy some of the goods and services they need to support their families. For the three years following the start of the recession, more than $600 million in unemployment compensation was paid to out-of-work Vermonters, who in turn pumped that money into the state economy.
Good News and Bad News about Unemployment
Vermont’s traditional unemployment rate (U-3) ticked down again in March and is now 3.4 percentage points below the national average. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the broadest measure of unemployment, known as U-6, rose to over 12 percent in 2010. U-6 includes discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force and people who are working part time but would like to be working more.
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Vermont’s Employment Picks Up as the Jobs Landscape Shifts
Vermont’s annual unemployment rate was the second lowest in New England in 2010. New Hampshire’s was one-tenth of a percentage point lower, but given the margin of error in the data, Vermont may actually have been lowest. Vermont also showed the region’s greatest unemployment rate decline. The state’s average annual rate dropped from 6.9 percent for 2009 to 6.2 percent for 2010. That was a bigger decrease than in Maine or New Hampshire, the only other New England states where unemployment declined in 2010.
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Gains are in the Service Sector
Jobs are returning in Vermont, but they are scarcer in some important sectors than before the recession. Figures released today show that Vermont added 8,300 non-farm jobs (seasonally adjusted) from February 2010 to February 2011. However, there are fewer construction and manufacturing jobs, which typically pay above-average wages, than in late 2007. Meanwhile, various service sectors, which typically pay lower wages, have seen increases to levels higher than before the recession.
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Workers Pound the Pavement Again
Employment data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continues to indicate that Vermont’s economy is gaining ground. The labor force grew in February for the sixth straight month, suggesting that previously discouraged workers are looking for jobs again. While Vermont’s monthly unemployment rate ticked down, to 5.6 percent, the change was not statistically significant, according to the BLS.
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Vermont Leads the Nation as Jobs Return
Vermont’s job growth in January was the best in the nation, according to numbers released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Seasonally adjusted, non-farm jobs rose 1.8 percent from December 2010 to January 2011. The state also had the second biggest 12-month increase in the country: 2.7 percent. Vermont had 5,300 more jobs in January than a month earlier; 8,100 more than in January 2010. Unemployment inched down one-tenth of a point from the previous month, to 5.7 percent in January. With 303,900 jobs reported, Vermont has restored nearly two-thirds of the jobs lost since the start of the recession in December 2007. The private sector saw most of the job growth.
Last Year Was Better Than We Thought
March is the month when the BLS recalibrates its numbers. Revised 2010 figures released today show that Vermont had, on average, about 2,500 more jobs each month last year than originally reported. Vermont employers reported an average of about 295,000 non-farm jobs each month last year. The chart shows how much the original monthly totals were adjusted, up or down, as a result of the BLS’s annual recalibration.
But It’s Still 1989 for Many Vermonters
The Great Recession has been hard on average Vermonters, but the problems for low- and middle-income households date back more than few years. Median household income—half the state’s households have a higher income and half lower—was $50,619 in 2009. After adjusting for inflation, that was just 2 percent higher than median household income had been 20 years earlier. In other words, a median Vermont household in 2009 was trying to get by on nearly the same income as a comparable household in 1989.
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An Uptick in Unemployment Could Be a Good Sign
Vermont’s unemployment rate ticked up slightly—to 5.8 percent in December from 5.7 percent in November. In reality, joblessness was unchanged; the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics did not consider the rise statistically significant. Still, the new numbers may mean things are looking up. The rate increased, in part, because more Vermonters moved into the labor force. This may be a simple result of population growth. But it might also mean that people who had stopped looking for work felt optimistic enough about their job prospects to try again.
A Program to Avoid Layoffs Sees a One-Year Spike
Work sharing spiked in 2009 as Vermont employers reduced their labor costs in response to the recession but didn’t want to lose skilled workers. Work sharing, also known as the Short-Time Compensation Program, is an alternative to layoffs. It allows workers to receive unemployment insurance as partial compensation for having their hours reduced. Businesses must meet specific requirements, and all work-share plans must be approved by the Vermont Department of Labor. But the program allows both employers and employees to avoid the cost and hardship of total unemployment.
Unions Represent a Smaller Share of Vermont Workers
The share of employed Vermonters represented by unions shrank in 2010, according to new figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor. Just 11.8 percent of Vermonters working were union members in 2010, and unions represented 13.6 percent of workers, including those who were not members but were covered by union contracts. Vermont ranked fourth in union membership among the New England states, the same as in 2009.
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Improvements in the Labor Market are Slow but Steady
Vermont’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for November remained at 5.7 percent, according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The national rate inched up in November, to 9.8 percent. With a declining trend in the unemployment rate since June 2009, Vermont continues to have the second-lowest rate in 
New England, after New Hampshire. That state’s 5.4 percent rate was also unchanged from October.
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It’s a Little Easier to Land a Job
Before the recession, the Northeast had an average of two job openings for every three people looking for work. As the recession deepened, the competition for jobs grew. By November 2009, no positions existed for four out of five people trying to find a job. Competition has eased since then. In October 2010, there were no jobs for five out of seven people seeking work. The number of job openings in the Northeast has increased—from 482,000 in November 2009 to 676,000 in October 2010. However, the competition also has lessened because people have dropped out of the labor force and stopped looking for work. The Northeast region includes the New England states plus New York and Pennsylvania. There are no separate numbers for Vermont.
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In a Smaller Economy Productivity is Growing
The output of Vermont workers increased for the second year in a row in 2009, even while the overall economy contracted. After adjusting for inflation, the value of goods and services produced in Vermont in 2009 was down 0.7 percent from 2008. The fact that fewer people were working contributed to the decline. But the output of those who did have jobs increased an average of 1.8 percent per worker, again after adjusting for inflation. Nationally, the economy (gross domestic product) declined 2.1 percent in 2009, while real productivity per worker increased 1.2 percent.
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Glimpses of Good News Through the Gloom
New figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show Vermont employers added 1,800 non-farm jobs last month—the first increase this year that the Bureau deems statistically significant. The Bureau also revised Vermont’sfigure for September. Instead of losing 300 jobs that month, the state gained 100. Despite this recent good 
news, Vermont is still 12,500 jobs short of where it was at the beginning of the Great Recession.
For New Jobs, a Decade of Decline
The past decade has seen a steady decline in the number of jobs created by Vermont’s private employers, according to new figures from the BLS. Each month, the Bureau reports the net change in jobs, which is the number of new jobs created minus the number eliminated. Less frequently, the Bureau reports separately the gross number of jobs gained and gross jobs lost. New annual figures are out, covering March 2009 to March 2010. For the second year in a row, private sector employers created just under 20,000 jobs a year—about 10,000 fewer than they were creating 10 years ago.
Unemployment Compensation’s Trickle-Down Effect
A healthy unemployment fund helps more than just the jobless during an economic slowdown. The money also circulates through the economy, which keeps others employed. Since the beginning of the Great Recession in December 2007, out-of-work Vermonters have received nearly $600 million in unemployment compensation through state and federal programs. The money enabled these unemployed workers to pay for food, gas, and other items their families needed. Those purchases, in turn, provided work for store clerks, fuel truck drivers, and others.
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Jobs Losses Don’t Tell the Full Story
The latest Department of Labor figures confirm that Vermont is still struggling to restore the jobs lost in this recession. Non-farm jobs in September were down almost 15,000 from the start of the recession and have hovered there for more than a year. Meanwhile, the working-age population has grown. To keep pace with the workers who have entered the labor market since the recession began, Vermont needs an additional 18,000 jobs.
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The governor adds to unemployment
Despite the recession and the rise in unemployment, the Douglas administration eliminated nearly 700 jobs over the last three years—about 8 percent of the state workforce. Some agencies and departments took big hits: Natural Resources (-46 percent), Finance and Management (-35 percent), Commerce and Community Development (-22 percent), Education (-21 percent), Health (-19 percent), Aging and Independent Living (-16 percent). Nearly half the positions in the governor’s office are vacant.
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Mixed signals in monthly numbers
Vermont’s unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percentage points in September, a change that was not considered statistically significant to the U.S. Bureau of Labor of Statistics. The labor force was up over August, as was the number of employed Vermonters. Despite the apparent increase in employment, the number of seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs was down by 300.
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The Recession is Officially Over. Tell That to the Jobless
The National Bureau of Economic Research announced this week that the recession officially ended in June 2009. Still, jobs losses in Vermont and other states have continued. According to the latest figures, released today, Vermont gained 800 private sector jobs last month. However, the total number was down 1,600 from June 2009, when the recession ended, and down 15,300 since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
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Vermont Unemployment Flat, Below the National Rate
According to the latest figures, for the month of August, Vermont’s unemployment rate was the fifth-lowest in the country. For the third month in a row, the state’s unemployment rate has remained at 6 percent. Still, increasing numbers of Vermonters have stopped looking for work—which means that the real unemployment rate is higher.
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Despite Tax Cuts, Little Job Creation
Seemingly at odds with the notion that tax cuts to the wealthy stimulate job growth, Vermont’s private sector saw stronger job growth after the state and federal tax increases of the early 1990s than after the early-2000s Bush tax cuts, slated to expire this year. Both tax policies mainly affected upper-income taxpayers. The economy is complex; you can’t know what would have happened without the tax changes. But private sector jobs increased 22.7 percent during the expansion of the 1990s and just 3 percent in the recovery of the 2000s.
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As Job-Seekers Lose Steam, So Does the Recovery
For the fourth straight month, Vermonters have dropped out of the labor force. According to figures released today, the number of people working or looking for work dipped to 356,700 in July. That’s the smallest labor force in more than two years—only slightly larger than it was at the start of the recession in December 2007. Vermont’s unemployment rate has remainedrelatively low for the last few months, which suggests that discouraged workers have simply given up and stopped looking for jobs.
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A protracted slide in job creation
Net change in the number of Vermont jobs—the difference between jobs gained and jobs lost—doesn’t tell the full story. In the 1990s, Vermont’s private sector was adding nearly 30,000 jobs each year (blue line). But that growth eroded during the last decade, with only 20,000 jobs created in 2009. This makes the state more vulnerable to unemployment during this recession—when job losses (red line) rose to 30,000 in 2009—than it was during the recession of the early 2000’s.
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Out of work with no end in sight
Nationally, long-term unemployment is the worst it has been since the late 1940s. Vermont’s statistics don’t go back that far, but 2009 saw a sharp spike in the rate of unemployed workers who have been jobless for more than half a year. The rise in long-term unemployment is the likely cause of the shrinking labor force.
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New Hope for Unemployed Vermonters
Congress is poised to give a reprieve to thousands of Vermonters who have exhausted their state unemployment benefits and depend on emergency benefits from Washington. Regular benefits, which are state funded, last 26 weeks. In tough times, Congress typically steps in to help those who have exhausted their state benefits. The Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program of 2008 provided federal benefits for up to 34 weeks—longer in high-unemployment states. Congress extended EUC through 2009 and half of 2010, but let it lapse last month. Now it appears the Senate will approve another extension until at least November. Meanwhile, this month Vermont ended state extended benefits because the second-quarter unemployment rate dropped below 6.5 percent.
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A Positive Prognosis for State Revenues
After two years of decline, Vermont’s tax collections should begin growing in fiscal 2011 and 2012. According to the latest state forecasts, Vermont should see a 5 percent increase in General Fund revenues this year and 7.7 percent in fiscal 2012. Personal income tax receipts are expected to jump more than 11 percent in fiscal 2012. But that rise won’t bring income taxes back to pre-recession levels. Unemployment and Wall Street declines caused Vermont’s income tax revenue to drop nearly $125 million from fiscal 2008 to 2010.
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Fewer Hammers Swinging
The recession has hit Vermont construction workers hard. In the last year, the state has seen the greatest fall in construction jobs in New England, the second largest in the nation. Of approximately 240,000 private sector jobs in Vermont, construction accounts for about 5 percent or 11,200. That number is down 12 percent from January 2010 and 18.5 percent from a year ago. Vermont’s average construction wage for 2009 was $41,672—about 10 percent higher than the average private sector job. Despite the loss of construction jobs, Vermont saw the nation’s third-largest percentage point drop in the overall unemployment rate last year.
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A Bit of A Breather in the Labor Market and at Home
Unemployed Vermonters may be finding less competition for available jobs this spring. The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures show 3.7 unemployed workers per job opening in the Northeast in April. That’s an improvement from the peak of 5.3 in November 2009. However, more people are still chasing fewer jobs than before the start of the recession. The Northeast includes New England, Pennsylvania, and New York. There are no figures just for Vermont.
Secure Homeownership: An Anchor in Rough Waters
Vermont’s foreclosure rate was the lowest in the nation in May, with no close second. According to USA Today, Vermont saw one foreclosure last month for every 16,454 housing units. Although this number is up from 
April, Vermont has had fewer than 20 foreclosures a month for the past seven months. The next-lowest state was West Virginia, with 1 per 7,776 housing units. The national average was 1 in 400. Although more than 20,000 Vermonters are out of work, it appears that few of them are struggling to hold onto their homes. That helps Vermont rank comparatively low on the Associated Press economic stress index for counties and states, which takes into account rates of unemployment, foreclosures, and bankruptcies.
Little Change in Joblessness, No Change in Jobs
Vermont’s unemployment rate dipped slightly in May, according to statistics released today. Unfortunately, the change resulted from people leaving the job market, not going back to work. The number of employed Vermonters dropped, as did the number of unemployed. The unemployment rate is the 
number of people out of work divided by the total labor force. When people become discouraged and stop looking for work, they are no longer counted in the labor force. Meanwhile, in other data released by the BLS today, the total number of non-farm jobs was unchanged in May. An increase of 1,200 government jobs offset a 
private-sector loss of 1,200.
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On the Trail to Recovery—With More Hills to Climb
There were mixed signals again in Vermont’s employment and jobs figures released today. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly, and more people reported they were employed. But according to the survey of Vermont employers, almost 2,000 jobs were eliminated last month. This is the second month in a row that the jobs figures and employment data appeared to contradict each other. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it conducts its monthly survey of workers and employers. 
Officials at the Vermont Department of Labor have warned that the monthly figures are likely to be more volatile. Nevertheless, the trend of both employment and jobs statistics has been generally positive since late last summer.
A Long Wait for Work
Despite recent fluctuations, Vermont employers have been slowly adding jobs since late summer of 2009. Nevertheless, a new forecast by the New England Economic Partnership (NEEP) estimates it will be 2012 or 2013 before Vermont gains back all the jobs lost during the recession. There were about 308,000 non-farm jobs in Vermont in 2007. Since then, that number has dropped to a low of about 295,000. According to the NEEP spring forecast released on Thursday, Vermont’s non-farm jobs should rise to about 305,000 in 2012 and 310,000 in 2013.
Another Sign of the Times: Homelessness
Thanks to the recession, Vermonters have increasingly turned to the state for help. Demand for food stamps is up, and more families are relying on Vermont’s Reach Up program. Homelessness also has grown during this recession. For the last three years, the Vermont Coalition to End Homelessness has conducted a census one day each year. According to preliminary figures from this year’s count, the number of homeless Vermonters has risen to almost 2,800. That’s an increase of about 500 people—or 20 percent—since January 2008, just after the official start of the recession. The Coalition’s full report should be available by mid-June.
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Vermont’s Workers May Not Be Sharing the Nation’s Recent Good Fortune
Vermont may not have been part of the big surge in new jobs that President Obama touted earlier this month. He announced that employers added more than 160,000 jobs in March. Meanwhile, preliminary figures show Vermont lost 1,900 non-farm jobs last month. That was one of the biggest percentage declines in the country and Vermont’s fourth-biggest monthly loss since the start of the recession. But the decline also may be a statistical anomaly. While the survey of employers showed a drop in non-farm jobs last month, the number of employed Vermonters increased. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed its survey methods and has warned that the month-to-month figures in small states such as Vermont are likely to be more volatile than they used to be. Next month’s figures may resolve the discrepancy in the March numbers.
Jobs: A Decent Half-Year
Vermont had been seeing job growth recently, although it was uneven across various industries. From the start of the recession at the end of 2007 to its worst point in the summer of 2009, Vermont lost 14,400 private-sector jobs. But from August 2009 to February 2010, Vermont had net job growth in four of six months. During that period, private-sector employers added 6,000 new jobs and eliminated 2,700, for a net gain of 3,300. The biggest increase was in accommodation and food services (3,400), but there were also gains in health care and social assistance (1,300), administrative, support, and waste management services (400), and manufacturing (100). The biggest losses occurred in construction (1,200), retail trade (1,100), and professional, scientific, and technical services (400). Some of the industries with the biggest gains unfortunately pay lower wages on average.
Soaring Bankruptcies Despite Legal Obstacles
The number of Vermonters filing for bankruptcy has jumped 82 percent since the start of the recession. The sharp rise has occurred despite new federal laws that make it harder for people to get out from under heavy debt. Bankruptcy filings spiked just before the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 took effect, and then they fell sharply as a result of the new restrictions. For 2007, before the recession hit, 812 Vermonters filed for bankruptcy. For 2009, bankruptcies jumped to 1,481, approaching levels Vermont experienced prior to the new law.
Unemployment is Static—But Things Get Worse for Workers
Unemployment was essentially unchanged in Vermont and most other states in February. According to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, only seven states and Washington, D.C., had monthly changes in their unemployment rates that were statistically significant. Vermont’s wasn’t one of them. Its February rate was 6.6 percent; January’s was 6.7 percent—among the lowest in the country.
Jobs in the Northeast
People out of work in the Northeast face the most competition for jobs in 10 years. The latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that there were more than five unemployed workers for every job opening in January 2010. This is largest ratio of job-seekers to jobs for the region—which includes New England, New York, and Pennsylvania—since the Bureau began compiling these data in December 2000. The previous peak came two years after the 2000 recession, with approximately three unemployed workers per job opening.
Unemployment, Broadly Measured
New annual figures for 2009 show a big jump last year in the broadest measure of unemployment. The so-called U-6 rate for 2009 averaged 11.8 percent; in 2007, just before the start of the recession, it was 6.9 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures different unemployment rates. The most often quoted rate is U-3, which is the number of unemployed people seeking work as a percentage of the total labor force. The U-6 rate includes U-3 plus discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force and part-time workers who would prefer to work more. Some economists say U-6 is the true measure of unemployment.
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New Numbers, Same Story: Jobs and Unemployment Remain Steady
State and federal officials released revised labor statistics today showing that Vermont’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and the number of seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs were largely unchanged in January. According to the latest figures, Vermont’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.7 percent in January, the same as December 2009. The number of seasonally adjusted jobs stood at 296,300, up 800 from December.
Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts its estimates and revises the monthly figures it had reported previously. Employment, unemployment and labor force numbers are statistical estimates based on telephone surveys of households. Jobs data come from surveys of employers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised its estimating methods this year to reduce the volatility of the monthly seasonally adjusted figures. In the past, the sampling methods have sometimes resulted in sharp swings from one month to another. Still, for small states like Vermont, the month-to-month changes in unemployment or jobs figures are less significant than the long-term trends. A full explanation of the BLS estimating revisions can be found at the agency’s website. Release of January labor statistics—which normally would have happened in February—was delayed by the annual revision process. February labor statistics will be released later this month.
Jobs
Revised figures show that Vermont lost thousands of jobs in the first six months of 2009—but the losses were not quite as precipitous as initially reported. The top-right figure shows monthly jobs numbers as they were reported last year and the revised numbers released today. The initial reports showed that Vermont lost almost 5,000 jobs from November to December 2008. According to the revised figures, about 1,400 jobs were lost. By either measure, Vermont lost more than 10,000 jobs from the fall of 2008 to late summer 2009.
Unemployment
Revised unemployment figures show that the peak unemployment rate last spring was slightly lower than first thought. However, according to the new numbers, the drop in unemployment over the summer wasn’t quite as great, either.
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Hard Times Get Harder; Government Gives Relief
After six months of gradual decline, the number of unemployed Vermont workers shot up by 1,600 in December. That was a statistically significant jump from November and the largest monthly increase since last January. In fact, with only two exceptions—December 2008 and January 2009—it was the largest single-month increase in unemployment in almost two decades.
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Unemployment Could Have Been Worse
The federal American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) saved or created 5,000 jobs in Vermont in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the most recent report of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors. That’s nearly a quarter of the December unemployment number. Without these stimulus funds, the unemployment rate in Vermont would have been 8.3 percent, versus the actual 6.9 percent.
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The Recession Heats Up Demand for Fuel Aid
Vermont’s Low Income Heat Energy Assistance Program has grown 28 percent since the start of the recession. Record numbers of Vermonters are applying for fuel assistance: Last year the program served 26,313 households, and it is projected to reach 27,000 this year. The program targets the neediest—in 2006 more than half were either elderly or disabled—but heightened demand underscores the financial difficulties facing many Vermonters this year.
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Signs Are Good…if They Hold
December 2009
Vermont’s preliminary November employment statistics, released Friday, were all moving in the right direction: increased labor force, increased employment, and a drop in unemployment. The number of Vermonters employed last month was the highest in the last year. The number of workers in the labor force increased for the first time since July—a sign that discouraged job-seekers may again be looking for work. People who stop looking for work are not counted as either unemployed or in the labor force. A good month—but it’ll be several months before we know whether we’re on the road to economic recovery.
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More Vermonters Rely on Multiple Jobs
Vermont has New England’s highest percentage of workers holding two or more jobs. According to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9.4 percent of the Vermont labor force held a second job in 2007. This might be one explanation for why Vermont’s unemployment rate is the lowest in New England and below the national average. If a person working two jobs loses one, she is still counted as employed. The data indicate that at the start of the recession a higher percentage of workers had extra jobs in Vermont than in any other state but South Dakota and Nebraska. The report does not reveal whether Vermonters are working extra jobs by choice or necessity.
Long-term Unemployment Grows
A growing percentage of Vermont’s unemployed are long-term unemployed. New quarterly data show the number of Vermonters out of work for 15 weeks or more increased in 2009. That’s not unusual in a recession. But the share of unemployed Vermonters looking for work for 15 weeks or more jumped sharply in the last year. Before the recession, 25 to 30 percent of Vermont’s jobless had been out of work at least 15 weeks. For the period of October 2008 through September 2009, the percentage rose to 43 percent.
For more information on long-term unemployment and the other five measures of unemployment, go to the Vermont Department of Labor website.
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No Bad News Is Good
November 2009
That there was no bad news was good news on the Vermont unemployment front in October. The official unemployment rate dropped slightly—to 6.5 percent from 6.7 percent—but the change is not statistically significant. Still, the fact that the unemployment rate did not go up meant Vermont fared better than much of the rest of the country. There also may have been a slight rise in jobs. The Vermont Department of Labor reported an increase of 200 jobs during the month—half in the public sector and half in the private sector. However, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics is revising its methods for estimating changes in the labor and job markets, and the October jobs figures are likely to change.
Federal Unemployment Program Helped Vermont Economy
Unemployed Vermont workers—and the Vermont economy—received $45 million through a federal emergency unemployment program that started about six month into the recession. Unemployment benefits and food stamps are two of the quickest ways for the federal government to get money into the economy. The Emergency Unemployment Compensation Program of 2008 began providing benefits in July 2008 to people who had run out of state benefits. By the time the program had ended in August 2009, almost 12,000 Vermonters had gotten just over $45 million in benefits. Although that program ended, the same benefits are being provided through the economic stimulus package passed earlier this year.
More Vermonters Are Using Food Stamps
More Vermonters are relying on unemployment benefits to struggle through the recession; more, too, are turning to public support to help them feed their families. Since December 2007, the start of the current slump, the number of people in 3SquaresVT—Vermont’s renamed Food Stamp Program—has increased 50 percent. More than 80,000 Vermonters now rely on 3SquaresVT. Not all of the increase is due to the recession. In January 2009, Vermont expanded eligibility so that more Vermont families could qualify for assistance. But in the first 12 months of the recession, before the program was expanded, the number of Vermonters receiving food stamps rose to 63,000 from 54,000.
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Vermont’s Labor Force Is Shrinking
October 2009 Jobs Brief
The Vermont labor force continued to shrink in September as 1,900 more unemployed Vermonters stopped looking for work. In May, the labor force reached a peak of 361,000, but has been falling since then. Last month it stood at 356,900 (Figure 1).
The labor force includes everyone defined as either employed or unemployed. Unemployed means an individual must have looked for work sometime in the past four weeks. When workers stop looking for work, they are no longer considered part of the labor force. The number of workers who give up looking for work, not surprisingly, rises during recessions.1
Unemployed workers per job opening in the Northeast continued to increase in August providing further justification for workers to feel discouraged (Figure 2).
Vermont’s Department of Labor reported the official seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was down slightly in September to 6.7 percent and that employment also was down. Vermont continues to have the lowest unemployment rate in New England, but the rate appears to be dropping because people are leaving the labor force, not because they are going back to work.
Even if, as some economists believe, the recession is coming to an end—that is, that the economy has stopped contracting and is beginning to grow again—it is likely that unemployed Vermonters will continue to have trouble finding jobs for quite some time. After the last two recessions—in the early 1990s and 2001—it took more than two and a half years for the number of Vermont jobs to return to their pre-recession peaks (Figure 3).
The public sector shed 1,400 jobs in September, due to the end of a summer youth employment program and the Douglas administration’s continuing effort to reduce the number of state employees. The administration has cut 600 state jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
1 http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils74.pdf
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Vermont’s Unemployment Rate Still High, But Lowest in Northeast
September 2009 Jobs Brief
Vermont’s unemployment rate remained at 6.8 percent in August, the seventh month at this level or higher and the longest stretch since the early 1980’s. As bad as it is for Vermonters, workers elsewhere in the Northeast have it worse. Vermont now has the lowest unemployment rate in New England and New York (Figure 1).
After the loss of 15,500 private sector jobs in Vermont since the start of the recession—12,900 of them in the past year—August showed no further decline. Public sector jobs dropped slightly (100 jobs) last month. Figure 2 shows the monthly change in private sector jobs since the start of the recession.
According to data released today by the Vermont Department of Labor, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady in August at 6.8 percent. Labor Department analysts had expected they might have to increase the preliminary July unemployment rate. However, no adjustment was needed, so the rate stayed at 6.8 percent.
While the unemployment rate didn’t change this month, the number of employed Vermonters actually went down by 1,146. The rate stayed the same even though there were fewer Vermonters working last month because the overall labor force also declined. A possible explanation for the smaller labor force is that people stopped looking for work. Workers who are not actively seeking employment are not counted in the labor force —or as unemployed in the standard unemployment rate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures several different unemployment rates. The most familiar is know as U-3, which is the total unemployed as a percentage of the total labor force, but does not include discouraged workers. Another measure is U-6, which some economists say is a truer picture of the labor market. The U-6 rate includes those officially unemployed along with discouraged workers and part-time workers who would prefer to work more. Figure 3 shows the relationship between the annual averages for U-3 and U-6 in Vermont over the past five years. See www.vtlmi.info/unempalt.cfm for an explanation of the various measures of unemployment.
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Stimulus Helps Public Job Growth; Private Sector Still Lags
August 2009 Jobs Brief
The public sector added 1,700* jobs in July, many of them youth services jobs paid for with federal stimulus funds. Meanwhile, the private sector reported more job losses last month.
State government jobs increased by 1,100 in July. According to the Vermont Department of Labor, youth services employment accounted for about 900 of those jobs and added about $2.7 million to the monthly payroll. Jobs through youth services employment programs are counted as state government jobs even though young people working are not state employees. Vermont has been reducing the state payroll through attrition and lay-offs.
Private sector jobs continued to decline and undercut the gains in the public sector last month. The private sector, which accounts for about 80 percent of the jobs in Vermont, lost 800 jobs in July. Since the start of the recession, the private sector has lost 15,600 jobs – more than 6 percent.
With the help of stimulus funds, the number of public sector jobs was about 2.5 percent higher than before the recession. (Figure 1.)
Unemployment dropped sharply in July and was below 7 percent for the first time since January. But the job market is still tight. The latest survey by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, found in June there were four unemployed workers for every job opening in the Northeast, which includes New England, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The ratio of job-seekers to jobs was twice as bad in June as it was before the recession. (Figure 2.)
The unemployment rate dropped to 6.8 percent in July. However, that is a preliminary number, and the Vermont Department of Labor said it could be revised upward next month. Last month, the preliminary June unemployment rate was 7.1 percent, but it was adjusted to 7.3 percent in the latest report. (Figure 3.)
*All jobs figures are seasonally adjusted.
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Vermont Unemployment: Five Months Over 7 Percent
July 2009 Jobs Brief
June marked the fifth straight month that Vermont’s unemployment rate has been above 7 percent, the longest stretch in more than a quarter century. The Vermont Department of Labor released the June numbers on July 17, and they showed the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to be 7.1 percent.
The June 2009 rate was down slightly from the previous month, but Vermont’s unemployment is up nearly 60 percent from a year ago. (At the same time the Vermont Department of Labor released preliminary figures for June, it revised the May number – 7.4 percent instead of the initial report of 7.3)
While the unemployment rate is down slightly compared to May 2009, the news is not good. Vermont lost 1,200 seasonally adjusted jobs in June and there were nearly 2,200 fewer Vermonters in the labor force. The unemployment percentage is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by the number in the labor force, which includes both unemployed and employed (including self-employed). Since the state had fewer jobs in June and fewer Vermonters in the workforce, the drop in the number of unemployed is likely the result of fewer Vermonters looking for work.
The current recession is now in its 19th month, which makes it the worst in 70 years. “This downturn will clearly be more severe than any since the Great Depression,” economist Thomas Kavet told legislative leaders in Montpelier on Thursday. (See latest economic forecast here.) In the recession of 1981-82, Vermont’s unemployment rate stayed above 7 percent for more than a year, which could be a sign of things to come.
Despite the bleak outlook in Vermont, workers in other states are suffering more. New York and most of the other New England states have unemployment rates above 8 percent. Vermont and New Hampshire are the exceptions (Figure 3).
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