Resources for tracking federal policy changes

The federal government shutdown began on October 1st, the start of the new federal fiscal year, after existing funding expired and Congress failed to approve new funding. Until funding is restored, many federal workers in the state are furloughed (put on temporary leave) or working without pay.

Federal workers in Vermont: 6,590  

The Office of Management and Budget is trying to use the shutdown as an opportunity to lay off federal workers, targeting employees at the Departments of Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Treasury, Education, Housing and Urban Development, Energy, Commerce, and the Environmental Protection Agency.

Vermonters working for federal agencies that are targeted for layoffs: 2,775 

The shutdown also means that certain federal programs and functions that use discretionary dollars are currently paused until funding is restored. For example, National Parks will remain partially open to the public but mostly unstaffed, Head Start grants (which help to provide early childhood education, health and nutrition) may be delayed for certain grantees, and new loans for farmers will be paused. As the shutdown continues, more programs could be impacted, including nutritional supports for women and children.

Women and children in Vermont at risk of temporarily losing nutritional assistance: 10,366 total, including 1,810 infants

In addition to the many grants already frozen or cancelled before the shutdown, the administration is permanently cutting grant funding during the shutdown for projects that expand renewable energy and address climate change, including two projects in Vermont.

Healthcare premium assistance
One of the main issues at stake is an extension of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits, which increase subsidies for ACA Marketplace health insurance and expand eligibility for subsidies to those making over 400 percent of the federal poverty level ($62,600 for an individual in 2025). These enhanced subsidies expire at the end of the calendar year, after which subsidies will return to their pre-COVID levels unless Congress extends them.

Vermonters receiving enhanced premium tax credits for healthcare in 2025: 30,280

Total enhanced credits to Vermonters: $65 million

There is currently no indication of when the shutdown may end. The longest federal shutdown in history was 34 days (2018-19).

On July 1, the Senate passed a budget reconciliation bill with substantial changes from the  version passed by the House in May. The new, amended bill then passed the House on July 3, and the president signed into law the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” on July 4. The details below are final. While some changes take effect immediately, other changes won’t go into effect for years. For example, many benefit and funding changes to Medicaid will take effect after the 2026 midterm elections, while more restrictive eligibility requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will take effect once the U.S. Department of Agriculture issues guidance.

Medicaid
The final bill makes a number of changes to Medicaid that will result in coverage losses in Vermont and nationally. These include increasing how often people must submit benefit renewal paperwork and requiring 19 to 64 year olds to work or participate in training programs for 80 hours a month to qualify for benefits. The law also further restricts immigrants’ access to health insurance by limiting Medicaid eligibility to fewer groups of immigrants, including removing eligibility for refugees and those granted asylum. While Vermont was already expecting to see big cuts to Medicaid under the bill passed by the House in May, the state’s expected Medicaid cuts doubled under the final law: Vermont could see a nearly $2.7 billion drop in Medicaid funding over ten years, and hospitals could lose nearly $400 million. Notably, 16,000 Vermonters could lose their health insurance.

SNAP
Significant changes to SNAP will impact Vermont beneficiaries and the state budget. Currently, the federal government pays all SNAP benefit costs. But under the new law, states with payment error rates (underpayments and overpayments) above 6 percent must pay between 5 and 15 percent of benefit costs starting in fiscal year 2028. Depending on Vermont’s payment error rate, the increased cost to the state could range from $7 million to $22 million annually. The bill also reduces federal funding for the administration of benefits starting in fiscal year 2027 and institutes stricter work requirements for 18 to 64 year olds than previous requirements under SNAP. Finally, the law prohibits benefits for people with certain lawful immigration status, including refugees and those granted asylum. In Vermont, an estimated 40,000 families could lose some of their food assistance.

Tax Cuts and Credits
The final law permanently extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts with some additional changes. In addition to making corporate tax breaks permanent and changing tax rates and brackets to primarily cut taxes for the wealthiest, the law also increases the amount of state and local taxes paid that filers can deduct from their federal taxes. Under this provision, filers with incomes of up to $500,000 can deduct $40,000 in certain state and local taxes paid from their federal taxes (with a phaseout above that amount) until 2030. In Vermont, the law is expected to save the richest 1 percent nearly $60,000 on average each year, over 500 times more than the expected savings for the bottom 20 percent. The top 5 percent of Vermont taxpayers are expected to accrue over $440 million in savings in 2026. More than 70 percent of all benefits—$730 million in 2026—from this tax proposal are directed to the top 20 percent of Vermonters.

The bill also increases the maximum Child Tax Credit to $2,200—an increase of $200—and makes it permanent. However, credit requirements are expected to leave an estimated 19 million low-income children out of receiving the full credit because their parents earn too little. Furthermore, the bill denies the credit to children with a social security number if both parents do not also have one, disqualifying an estimated 2 million children nationally.

Medicaid provides health insurance to low-income families and individuals, including children, parents, pregnant people, seniors, and people with disabilities. The House committee that oversees Medicaid was instructed to make at least $880 billion in cuts over ten years. In response, Congress passed several changes to Medicaid to cut costs, including instituting work requirements, increasing the frequency of eligibility redeterminations, and removing Medicaid eligibility for refugees and those granted asylum. Under the new law, an estimated 16,000 Vermonters are expected to lose Medicaid coverage. Vermont could see a nearly $2.7 billion drop in Medicaid funding over ten years, and hospitals could lose nearly $400 million.

Impacts of final bill:

• How Will the 2025 Reconciliation Law Affect the Uninsured Rate in Each State?
• Implementation Dates for 2025 Budget Reconciliation Law of Health Provisions
• Medicaid is Vital to Vermont
• Medicaid Work Requirements Will Take Away Coverage From Millions: State and Congressional District Estimates
• Research Note: Workers in Broad Range of Occupations at Risk of Having Their Coverage Taken Away by Medicaid Work Requirements
• State Fact Sheets: How the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans Are Increasing Costs for American Families
• Implementing the Harmful Republican Megabill: a Timeline
• Harmful Republican Megabill Fails Vermont Families, Children, and Communities
• Medicaid changes under final law
• Federal Medicaid funding cuts to Vermont
• Reduction in enrollment and Medicaid funding for hospitals
• Tracker for closure of rural hospitals by state

More on the impacts of cuts to Medicaid in Vermont:

• Estimated Medicaid coverage loss in Vermont
• Overview of healthcare changes in the House bill
• House bill takes health coverage away from millions of people
• Cost of continuing to provide health insurance under current policies in Vermont
• Health care insurance, food assistance, and job losses by state
• State by state estimates of Medicaid provisions
• House Health Proposals Will Cause Over 40,000 Deaths Annually
• Medicare, Medicaid, and ACA Provisions Overview
• Eliminating the Medicaid Expansion Federal Match Rate: State-by-State Estimates
• How Medicaid Cuts Could Be Felt in Vermont
• The Importance of Medicaid to Vermont’s Children
• The Importance of Medicaid to All Vermonters
• Medicaid Cuts as a Share of Vermont’s Average Household Income

SNAP benefits provide food assistance to Vermonters with incomes up to 185 percent of federal poverty guidelines. The House committee that oversees the program was instructed to cut at least $230 billion in spending over ten years. To achieve these cuts, Congress instituted stricter work requirements, shifted some benefit and administrative costs to the state, and prohibited assistance for certain people with lawful immigration status, including refugees and those granted asylum, along with additional changes. More than one in ten Vermonters receive food stamps, nearly three-fifths of whom—40,000 households—may be impacted by these cuts. Depending on the payment error rates, starting in federal fiscal year 2028, Vermont could be responsible for covering $7 to $22 million annually in benefit costs previously paid for by the federal government.

Impacts of final bill:

• How the Senate Budget Reconciliation SNAP Proposals Will Affect Families in Every US State
• MAP: See How Cuts to SNAP Food Assistance Affect Your State
• State Fact Sheets: How the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans Are Increasing Costs for American Families
• Implementing the Harmful Republican Megabill: a Timeline
• Harmful Republican Megabill Fails Vermont Families, Children, and Communities
• Overview of changes to SNAP
• Payment error rates for Vermont over time
• State cost of SNAP benefits under final law

More on the impacts of cuts to food stamps in Vermont:

• Estimated loss of SNAP benefits by state
• Estimated loss of SNAP benefits nationally
• Estimated cost to Vermont of continuing to provide food assistance
• Overview of changes to SNAP in the House bill
• Counties in Vermont that would meet work requirement exemptions
• Millions of Low-Income Households Would Lose Food Aid Under Proposed House Republican SNAP Cuts
• Overview of SNAP Recipients in Vermont
• Fiscal Impacts of Cost-Shifting SNAP to Vermont
• Potential Impacts to School Meals in Vermont

Congress passed a permanent extension of the 2017 tax cuts with some additional changes, including temporarily boosting the amount that taxpayers can deduct in certain state and local taxes paid from their federal taxes. Under this extension, the top 5 percent of Vermont taxpayers—those with incomes above about $320,000—are expected to reap $440 million in savings annually. These tax cuts are expected to save Vermont’s top 1 percent of taxpayers an average of $60,000, more than 500 times the cut for the bottom fifth. Congress also increased the maximum Child Tax Credit. However, the structure of the credit will leave an estimated 19 million low-income children out of receiving the full credit because their parents earn too little. Furthermore, the bill denies the credit to children with a social security number if both parents do not also have one, disqualifying an estimated 2 million children nationally.

Impacts of final bill:

• Implementing the Harmful Republican Megabill: a Timeline
• Harmful Republican Megabill Fails Vermont Families, Children, and Communities
• Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Trump Megabill as Signed into Law: National and State Level Estimates
• Impact of Trump Megabill in Vermont: Average Tax Change
• Long-term Impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as Enacted on July 4, 2025

The reconciliation bill directs $140 billion in new funding to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Both ICE and CBP enforce customs and immigration law, typically with ICE working in the country’s interior and CBP working at the borders. ICE manages immigration detention and deportations, while CBP conducts inspections to detect and prevent unauthorized entry into the country of people or goods.

ICE received nearly $75 billion in supplemental funding, including $45 billion for constructing and expanding detention centers and nearly $30 billion for hiring 10,000 new employees—a boost of 50 percent compared to current staffing levels. This one-time funding is in addition to annual funds passed through the appropriations process; in Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, Congress appropriated over $10 billion in base funding for ICE. While this base amount could change in future years, it has historically increased over time. These combined investments are expected to double immigration detention capacity from more than 50,000 beds to over 100,000, including through the construction of new family detention facilities and “mega-facilities”.

As of the end of August, over 60,000 people were being held by ICE in detention centers, roughly 70 percent of whom have no prior criminal conviction.

In addition to new spending for ICE, the bill provides nearly $65 billion in supplemental funding for CBP. This includes $12 billion for agents and detention and over $6 billion for border surveillance technology. It also provides $47 billion for additional infrastructure along the southern border, including new stretches of wall, other barriers and lights. While some border infrastructure has already been built at a cost of over $20 million per mile, most of it is not contiguous, and long stretches of the border have no barrier at all. Like supplemental ICE funding, the supplemental CBP funding is on top of its annual appropriations funding, which is $23 billion in FY 2025. CBP has long been the biggest federal law enforcement agency by funding and staff size; these new allocations will likely catapult ICE to second place, surpassing the FBI.

Impacts of final bill:

• The Republican budget bill would eliminate nearly six million jobs by unleashing Trump’s radical mass deportation agenda
• The Anti-Immigrant Policies in Trump’s Final “Big Beautiful Bill,” Explained
• Provisions on Immigrants’ Access to Public Benefits in the Final Reconciliation Package
• The budget reconciliation act of 2025: harms to immigrant children and families
• Implementing the Harmful Republican Megabill: a Timeline
• Overview of reconciliation immigration enforcement provisions
• Immigration detention, court, and prosecution quick facts

The administration proposed pausing federal funding under 2,600 different programs. While federal funding freezes are being challenged in court, the impacts of these freezes are already being felt in Vermont and could be astronomical. Federal funding accounts for roughly one third of the state’s budget, or more than $3 billion. Certain nonprofits and state agencies have already lost funding due to freezes, including funding for food assistance, vaccine access, the humanities, and climate and flood resiliency. Social Security payments make up the bulk of funding to individuals—more than $3.6 billion in FY24.

More on the impacts of federal funding freezes in Vermont:

• Tracking federal expenditures in real time
• The Consequences of a Federal Funding Freeze in Vermont
• Federal Funds as a Share of State Revenue
• Federal contracts and grants in Vermont by recipient and amount
• Impacts of Federal Cuts on Health Research by State
• Share of Vermont Nonprofits that Receive Government Grants

The administration has fired tens of thousands of federal employees, with plans to fire at least a hundred thousand more. While lower courts ordered a temporary pause on layoffs within several agencies, the Supreme Court ruled on July 8 that firings may continue while legal challenges to the layoffs progress. This decision leaves many of Vermont’s roughly 5,000 federal employees uncertain about how much longer they will have a job.

Note: These numbers should be taken as estimates rather than an exact count. There are some differences in timing and methodology resulting in discrepancies in the reported federal employees in the state. 

More on the impacts of layoffs of federal employees in Vermont:

• Federal Workers in Vermont by Agency
• Federal Workers in Vermont by County 
• Thousands of Vermonters Have Federal Jobs
• Current Federal Civilian Employment by State and Congressional District
• Threats against federal workers impact communities in every state
• Federal employees in Vermont by Veteran Status
• Black Federal Workers in Vermont
• Where Trump, Musk and DOGE Have Cut Federal Workers So Far
• Tracking Trump’s overhaul of the federal workforce
• Impacts of Mass-Layoffs on Unemployment Insurance

The federal administration has taken several actions that impact the quality of life for both documented and undocumented immigrants in Vermont. This includes unlawful deportations, barring immigrants from accessing public benefits, and temporarily revoking student visas. The administration has also provided the Department of Homeland Security unprecedented access to confidential Medicaid and IRS tax information, and has requested data from states on all SNAP applicants and recipients in the last five years. The Vermont Agency of Human Services shared SNAP participant data with the federal administration the week of July 28th.

These actions impact immigrants, the communities in which they live, state employers and the economy, and much more. Many of these actions are being challenged in court. This includes a lawsuit brought by the Vermont attorney general, along with 19 other attorneys general, over the illegal use of Medicaid data.

More on the impacts of executive actions related to immigration in Vermont:

• State and Local Tax Contributions by Undocumented Immigrants in Vermont
• Comprehensive Tracker of all Trump Actions on Immigration
• International Student Visas Revoked by State (restored 04/25/25)
• Overview of Immigration and the Economy Nationally
• Feds share Medicaid data with Department of Homeland Security
• IRS shares taxpayer data with DHS
• Feds request state SNAP data
• Vermont sends SNAP data to feds
• Data privacy is essential to democracy
• VT AG sues feds over illegal Medicaid data sharing

For help with immigration issues in Vermont, contact: 

• For legal services for non-detained persons, call the State Civil Legal Needs Hotline at 1-800-889-2047.
• For legal services for detained persons, contact Vermont Asylum Assistance Project at 802-999-5654 and .
• To report an active arrest, call the Migrant Justice Rapid Response Line at 802-881-7229.

To learn more about your rights, visit: 

• The ACLU of Vermont Know your Rights Immigration Resources

• Vermont Language Justice Project Know Your Rights (multiple languages available)

The administration has proposed dismantling the Department of Education. In addition to other impacts, this would mean less money for Vermont’s schools and its students and employees, impacting more than 100,000 Vermonters.

More on the impacts of executive actions related to education in Vermont:

• Federal Education Dollars in Vermont
• Title I Dollars in Vermont and Estimated Teacher Loss/Student Impact if Cut