Charts & Infographics

Vermonters may be feeling the effects of a tightening job market. Job openings in the state have fallen to their lowest level since November 2020, dropping by 4,000 positions between February and March. These openings include both full-time and part-time jobs for which employers are actively recruiting. Some of the decrease is due to employers filling positions, and some is likely due to postings getting pulled down. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed Vermonters increased over the same period, leaving fewer job openings per unemployed person. The last time Vermont had such a low number of openings per person seeking work was March 2021.

As more Vermonters age into retirement, will the income tax base shrink and the state get less revenue?
Two-thirds of Vermont’s baby boomers—people born between 1946 and 1964—were 65 or older as of 2024, meaning they were eligible for Medicare and retirement benefits from Social Security. But more Vermonters aging out of the workforce has not led to less income tax revenue for the state. Vermonters 65 and over have more taxable income on average than those under 65 and pay more taxes per return than younger filers.

Low- and middle-income Vermonters are subsidizing higher-income taxpayers.
School taxes are currently regressive: Higher-income Vermonters pay a smaller share of their income to support schools than lower-income taxpayers. High-income Vermonters pay school taxes based on property because it’s cheaper for them than paying based on income like everyone else.

The Vermonters with the most income don’t pay school taxes based on income.
Vermonters can pay their school taxes either based on income or on property value. For most Vermonters, paying by income is the better deal. But for higher-income Vermonters, paying by property is cheaper. While Vermonters with incomes above about $125,000 represent just 30 percent of households, they hold 60% of the total income tax base—more than $13 billion.

The value of the primary residence is not a good measure of wealth.
For low- and middle-income Vermonters with mortgages, the value of the primary home overstates their ability to pay because their home equity is less than the home value. And many taxpayers have other debt so may even have a negative net worth. And at the high end, the primary residence is a small share of their wealth and understates their ability to pay.

Income sensitivity thresholds have not been updated for decades. More and more Vermonters pay a combination of income and property taxes. When their incomes or house values pass certain thresholds their tax bills can jump even when school spending doesn’t change. Updating the thresholds would ensure low- and middle-income Vermonters benefit from income sensitivity.

The news this Women’s History Month is that women and men share an equal presence in the Vermont workforce. But the workforce is highly segregated by sex. Both men and women work in occupations where one sex accounts for at least two-thirds of the workers.

Many of the state’s social services, such as education and healthcare, rely on women’s labor. Women fill roughly three-quarters of Vermont’s more than 28,000 jobs in educational instruction, including tutors, librarians, teaching assistants, and teachers at all education levels. They represent a similar share of jobs in healthcare, office and administration, and social services occupations, including counseling, social work, and therapy.

Between 2019 and 2022, Vermont saw an influx of 3,000 households—about 7,000 people—most of them with six-figure incomes. These recent net gains followed a period starting in 2005, when Vermont was losing population through migration most years. But these net changes are still a small share of the total population: Since 1993, Vermont has seen a total net gain of about 3,000 people through migration.

Nearly half of all people who moved out of Vermont in 2022 headed elsewhere in the northeastern United States, with more than a third relocating across the border to a neighboring state. This was also true for people moving into Vermont—more than a third moved from New York, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Nine states made the Top 10 lists of both where Vermonters were moving to and where they were coming from.

These patterns are not new. Many of the same states have been on Vermont’s top in- and out-migration lists since the data were first collected, and there’s been significant overlap between the two lists every year.

Because of this overlap, the net migration between states is usually low. For example, while over 1,000 people moved between California and Vermont in 2022, Vermont’s population dropped by only 10.

For all of the focus on migration, an important fact is often overlooked: The vast majority of Vermonters stay put. Only about 3 percent of people moved out in 2022, which has been the pattern for 30 years.

The IRS data on income undercut an often repeated claim that the wealthy are fleeing the state. In fact, wealthy Vermonters move away every year. But wealthy residents from other states also move in every year. From 2012 to 2022, Vermont had a net gain in filers with income of $200,000 or more in all but one year. In 2022, for every three filers in that income bracket who left the state, five moved in. Based on the most recent data, Vermont saw net gains among filers with income of $50,000 or more and net losses among filers earning less than $50,000. Just over half of the filers who moved out of the state earned under $50,000.

This pattern was more pronounced with millennial filers: Most of the growth from migration in this age range came from households that earned $100,000 or more.

Half of all filers who moved into the state in 2022 were 26 to 44 years old, an age range closely matching the millennial generation. Using exemptions as a proxy, it appears some in that age group arrived with children, but we can’t tell how many.

Notably, the state saw a net decrease in only one age bracket: filers under 26. While a couple of thousand young Vermonters left the state, about 1,800 moved in, resulting in a net drop of roughly 500 people in their early 20s—similar to moving patterns over the preceding decade. In all other age brackets—from young professionals to seniors—Vermont saw population growth from migration. But millennial filers accounted for the largest share of overall growth.

Recently released IRS data from tax filings in 2022 provide new information about people moving in and out of Vermont. For the third year in a row, the state continued to see more filers enter than leave. Two of these years of growth occurred during the COVID pandemic—2021 and 2022.

A recent report by the Joint Fiscal Office shows that Vermont’s 2024 livable wage was nearly $19 an hour—exceeding the state minimum wage by almost $5. Vermont defines livable wage as the hourly earnings necessary for a single person working full time and living in shared housing to meet their basic needs. The gap was the largest in a decade, making it harder for workers to make ends meet.

While the state’s minimum wage increased from 2022 to 2024, it did not keep up with rising costs or wages in neighboring states. The minimum wage increased again at the start of 2025, but not enough to close the gap. At the new rate of $14.01 per hour, a full-time minimum wage earner is still nearly $10,000 in the hole each year. And the minimum wage does not even cover all workers. The tipped minimum wage is set at half the standard minimum wage, and agricultural workers can earn even less.

Vermont’s population has increased by 4,387 since the start of the decade. Deaths outnumbered births, but net positive migration (in-migration minus out-migration), both international and domestic, drove the overall increase. All counties except Rutland and Bennington have added population since 2020, with Grand Isle seeing the biggest percentage increase.

More than 95 percent of Vermonters have healthcare coverage. Public programs provided coverage to 42 percent of Vermonters in 2023, compared with 37 percent of the U.S. as a whole. Much of that difference was driven by Vermont’s older population: A larger share of Vermonters are eligible for Medicare. Meanwhile, 46 percent—just under 300,000 Vermonters—had private coverage through their employers, with an additional 17,000 purchasing coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace. Many low-income Vermonters with Medicare also had Medicaid coverage, but they are counted only under Medicare in this chart. And many older Vermonters purchased supplemental private plans, but they are not included in the private insurance count. Vermont ranked fifth for coverage among the states, although at least 90 percent of residents have coverage in all but 14 states.

While almost all Vermonters have healthcare coverage, the quality of that coverage varies, and the out-of-pocket costs can still be high. While Medicaid and Dr. Dynasaur provide expansive care with limited out-of-pocket costs for low-income adults and children, seniors on Medicare often purchase a supplemental private plan to pay for care that Medicare does not cover. And Vermonters who get private care through their employers have seen increases in premiums, deductibles, and other out-of-pocket costs in recent years. After growing more slowly than overall inflation from 2021 to 2023, the cost of medical care grew by more than 6 percent from 2023 to 2024. Insurers for small group and individual plans offered on the ACA exchange will impose increases of 11 percent to 23 percent in 2025.

The consumer price index (CPI) is probably the best-known inflation indicator. It tracks changes in the cost of what is called a “market basket” of goods and services, which include food, energy, shelter, clothing, medical care, and transportation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issues the index, as well as price changes for individual components, nationally and by region monthly.

After growing more slowly than overall inflation from 2021 to 2023, the cost of medical care grew by more than 6 percent from 2023 to 2024. Insurers for small group and individual plans offered on the ACA exchange will impose increases of 11 percent to 23 percent in 2025.

Housing costs are a major driver of economic insecurity in Vermont. In 2023, of the 50,000 renter households with incomes under $75,000, nearly two-thirds, or 32,000, spent more than 30 percent of their income on housing—the definition of unaffordability. The same was true for more than half of lower-income homeowners, or 42,000 households.

Mortgage costs are way up. For a house at median price in Vermont, a monthly payment leapt 56 percent in the last two years, from about $1,600 in 2021 to over $2,500 in 2023.

Vermont’s high housing costs are largely driven by limited supply. New residential housing construction has not kept up with demand in recent years, averaging about 2,200 new units per year since 2019. The Vermont Housing Finance Agency estimates that the state needs nearly 10,000 new units to catch up on the backlog; it will need 3,000 to 5,000 additional units per year between 2025 and 2029 to keep pace with migration to the state, replace aging housing stock, and account for shrinking household size. In addition to limited new construction, other factors are constraining supply. The 2023 floods permanently destroyed 300 units and temporarily damaged 1,300 more. The increasing number of short-term rental properties such as Airbnb or Vrbo units is also contributing to the shortage of permanent units, particularly in certain areas of the state.

Vermont’s high housing costs are largely driven by limited supply. New residential housing construction has not kept up with demand in recent years, averaging about 2,200 new units per year since 2019. The Vermont Housing Finance Agency estimates that the state needs nearly 10,000 new units to catch up on the backlog; it will need 3,000 to 5,000 additional units per year between 2025 and 2029 to keep pace with migration to the state, replace aging housing stock, and account for shrinking household size. In addition to limited new construction, other factors are constraining supply. The 2023 floods permanently destroyed 300 units and temporarily damaged 1,300 more. The increasing number of short-term rental properties such as Airbnb or Vrbo units is also contributing to the shortage of permanent units, particularly in certain areas of the state.

Nearly 3,500 Vermonters were identified as homeless in January 2024, one of the highest per capita rates in the country and triple the number before the pandemic. During the pandemic, the state used federal relief funds to house people in motels, which had few guests at that time, and changed the eligibility rules so that more people qualified for assistance. When federal pandemic-related housing aid ended in the spring of 2023, the state returned to pre-Covid eligibility rules. Since then the state has extended shelter programs multiple times for eligible groups. But it put in place additional limits in July 2024, resulting in the eviction of over 1,500 people from shelter in the fall of 2024. A more expansive seasonal shelter program is in effect from December through March.

The consumer price index (CPI) is probably the best-known inflation indicator. It tracks changes in the cost of what is called a “market basket” of goods and services, which include food, energy, shelter, clothing, medical care, and transportation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issues the index, as well as price changes for individual components, nationally and by region monthly.