Charts & Infographics

As more Vermonters age into retirement, will the income tax base shrink and the state get less revenue?
Two-thirds of Vermont’s baby boomers—people born between 1946 and 1964—were 65 or older as of 2024, meaning they were eligible for Medicare and retirement benefits from Social Security. But more Vermonters aging out of the workforce has not led to less income tax revenue for the state. Vermonters 65 and over have more taxable income on average than those under 65 and pay more taxes per return than younger filers.

Low- and middle-income Vermonters are subsidizing higher-income taxpayers.
School taxes are currently regressive: Higher-income Vermonters pay a smaller share of their income to support schools than lower-income taxpayers. High-income Vermonters pay school taxes based on property because it’s cheaper for them than paying based on income like everyone else.

The Vermonters with the most income don’t pay school taxes based on income.
Vermonters can pay their school taxes either based on income or on property value. For most Vermonters, paying by income is the better deal. But for higher-income Vermonters, paying by property is cheaper. While Vermonters with incomes above about $125,000 represent just 30 percent of households, they hold 60% of the total income tax base—more than $13 billion.

The value of the primary residence is not a good measure of wealth.
For low- and middle-income Vermonters with mortgages, the value of the primary home overstates their ability to pay because their home equity is less than the home value. And many taxpayers have other debt so may even have a negative net worth. And at the high end, the primary residence is a small share of their wealth and understates their ability to pay.

Income sensitivity thresholds have not been updated for decades. More and more Vermonters pay a combination of income and property taxes. When their incomes or house values pass certain thresholds their tax bills can jump even when school spending doesn’t change. Updating the thresholds would ensure low- and middle-income Vermonters benefit from income sensitivity.

The news this Women’s History Month is that women and men share an equal presence in the Vermont workforce. But the workforce is highly segregated by sex. Both men and women work in occupations where one sex accounts for at least two-thirds of the workers.

Many of the state’s social services, such as education and healthcare, rely on women’s labor. Women fill roughly three-quarters of Vermont’s more than 28,000 jobs in educational instruction, including tutors, librarians, teaching assistants, and teachers at all education levels. They represent a similar share of jobs in healthcare, office and administration, and social services occupations, including counseling, social work, and therapy.

The IRS data on income undercut an often repeated claim that the wealthy are fleeing the state. In fact, wealthy Vermonters move away every year. But wealthy residents from other states also move in every year. From 2012 to 2022, Vermont had a net gain in filers with income of $200,000 or more in all but one year. In 2022, for every three filers in that income bracket who left the state, five moved in. Based on the most recent data, Vermont saw net gains among filers with income of $50,000 or more and net losses among filers earning less than $50,000. Just over half of the filers who moved out of the state earned under $50,000.

This pattern was more pronounced with millennial filers: Most of the growth from migration in this age range came from households that earned $100,000 or more.

Recently released IRS data from tax filings in 2022 provide new information about people moving in and out of Vermont. For the third year in a row, the state continued to see more filers enter than leave. Two of these years of growth occurred during the COVID pandemic—2021 and 2022.

Half of all filers who moved into the state in 2022 were 26 to 44 years old, an age range closely matching the millennial generation. Using exemptions as a proxy, it appears some in that age group arrived with children, but we can’t tell how many.

Notably, the state saw a net decrease in only one age bracket: filers under 26. While a couple of thousand young Vermonters left the state, about 1,800 moved in, resulting in a net drop of roughly 500 people in their early 20s—similar to moving patterns over the preceding decade. In all other age brackets—from young professionals to seniors—Vermont saw population growth from migration. But millennial filers accounted for the largest share of overall growth.

For all of the focus on migration, an important fact is often overlooked: The vast majority of Vermonters stay put. Only about 3 percent of people moved out in 2022, which has been the pattern for 30 years.

Nearly half of all people who moved out of Vermont in 2022 headed elsewhere in the northeastern United States, with more than a third relocating across the border to a neighboring state. This was also true for people moving into Vermont—more than a third moved from New York, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Nine states made the Top 10 lists of both where Vermonters were moving to and where they were coming from.

These patterns are not new. Many of the same states have been on Vermont’s top in- and out-migration lists since the data were first collected, and there’s been significant overlap between the two lists every year.

Because of this overlap, the net migration between states is usually low. For example, while over 1,000 people moved between California and Vermont in 2022, Vermont’s population dropped by only 10.

Between 2019 and 2022, Vermont saw an influx of 3,000 households—about 7,000 people—most of them with six-figure incomes. These recent net gains followed a period starting in 2005, when Vermont was losing population through migration most years. But these net changes are still a small share of the total population: Since 1993, Vermont has seen a total net gain of about 3,000 people through migration.

A recent report by the Joint Fiscal Office shows that Vermont’s 2024 livable wage was nearly $19 an hour—exceeding the state minimum wage by almost $5. Vermont defines livable wage as the hourly earnings necessary for a single person working full time and living in shared housing to meet their basic needs. The gap was the largest in a decade, making it harder for workers to make ends meet.

While the state’s minimum wage increased from 2022 to 2024, it did not keep up with rising costs or wages in neighboring states. The minimum wage increased again at the start of 2025, but not enough to close the gap. At the new rate of $14.01 per hour, a full-time minimum wage earner is still nearly $10,000 in the hole each year. And the minimum wage does not even cover all workers. The tipped minimum wage is set at half the standard minimum wage, and agricultural workers can earn even less.

The labor force participation rate for men has been gradually falling for the last 20 years, although it has regained some ground since declining during the pandemic. Meanwhile, the rate for women held relatively steady between 2003 and 2013, before beginning to decline. Women’s participation has similarly recovered since the pandemic, but still not to pre-Great Recession levels. For both men and women, Vermont has typically maintained higher participation rates than the U.S. as a whole. And while Vermont has one of the smallest gender wage gaps in the country, women still earn less than men.

Over 64 percent of Vermont’s baby boomers—people born between 1946 and 1964—were 65 or older as of 2023, the age at which they become eligible for Medicare. They become eligible for full Social Security benefits at age 66 or 67, depending on their birth year. Labor force participation has been increasing for older Vermonters. At 26 percent in 2023, it was the highest in the country. But that’s much lower than the participation rate for workers under 65.

For over three years—from July 2021 to July 2024—Vermont had more than two job openings for every person looking for work. Over the same period, the state’s unemployment rate remained under 3.5 percent, among the lowest in the country. At the state level there are no details about the types of jobs available or the levels of pay, information that might help explain why more Vermonters have not rejoined the workforce since the pandemic.

Vermont’s average wages have trailed the nation’s for decades, while prices are average. That wage lag is driven by two factors: Wages for many jobs in Vermont are lower than for the same jobs in other states; and very highly paid workers in just a handful of states pull up the national figure. In fact, most states’ wages are lower than the average. But Vermont has one of the biggest gaps between wages and prices. In many states, wages correspond more closely to prices.

Vermont’s real household income grew 7.8 percent from 2019 through 2023. While that was the sharpest rise in the country, Vermont still ranked 17th in household income, up from a ranking of 26th in 2019 but still behind most of the other states in the region. For most Vermonters, household income is the sum of the wages earned by members of the household, so this increase may reflect an increase in household size rather than real gains. For wealthier Vermonters, a greater share of income is unearned, from sources such as investments.

Wages have not kept up with economic growth over the last two decades. While recent wage growth has made up some ground in the last few years, particularly at the low end of the scale, the preceding years of stagnant wages mean that many Vermonters are still struggling to afford their basic needs.

Wages have not kept up with economic growth over the last two decades. While recent wage growth has made up some ground in the last few years, particularly at the low end of the scale, the preceding years of stagnant wages mean that many Vermonters are still struggling to afford their basic needs.

The consumer price index (CPI) is probably the best-known inflation indicator. It tracks changes in the cost of what is called a “market basket” of goods and services, which include food, energy, shelter, clothing, medical care, and transportation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issues the index, as well as price changes for individual components, nationally and by region monthly.

Nearly 3,500 Vermonters were identified as homeless in January 2024, one of the highest per capita rates in the country and triple the number before the pandemic. During the pandemic, the state used federal relief funds to house people in motels, which had few guests at that time, and changed the eligibility rules so that more people qualified for assistance. When federal pandemic-related housing aid ended in the spring of 2023, the state returned to pre-Covid eligibility rules. Since then the state has extended shelter programs multiple times for eligible groups. But it put in place additional limits in July 2024, resulting in the eviction of over 1,500 people from shelter in the fall of 2024. A more expansive seasonal shelter program is in effect from December through March.

Vermont’s high housing costs are largely driven by limited supply. New residential housing construction has not kept up with demand in recent years, averaging about 2,200 new units per year since 2019. The Vermont Housing Finance Agency estimates that the state needs nearly 10,000 new units to catch up on the backlog; it will need 3,000 to 5,000 additional units per year between 2025 and 2029 to keep pace with migration to the state, replace aging housing stock, and account for shrinking household size. In addition to limited new construction, other factors are constraining supply. The 2023 floods permanently destroyed 300 units and temporarily damaged 1,300 more. The increasing number of short-term rental properties such as Airbnb or Vrbo units is also contributing to the shortage of permanent units, particularly in certain areas of the state.

Vermont’s high housing costs are largely driven by limited supply. New residential housing construction has not kept up with demand in recent years, averaging about 2,200 new units per year since 2019. The Vermont Housing Finance Agency estimates that the state needs nearly 10,000 new units to catch up on the backlog; it will need 3,000 to 5,000 additional units per year between 2025 and 2029 to keep pace with migration to the state, replace aging housing stock, and account for shrinking household size. In addition to limited new construction, other factors are constraining supply. The 2023 floods permanently destroyed 300 units and temporarily damaged 1,300 more. The increasing number of short-term rental properties such as Airbnb or Vrbo units is also contributing to the shortage of permanent units, particularly in certain areas of the state.