Charts & Infographics

Between 2019 and 2022, Vermont saw an influx of 3,000 households—about 7,000 people—most of them with six-figure incomes. These recent net gains followed a period starting in 2005, when Vermont was losing population through migration most years. But these net changes are still a small share of the total population: Since 1993, Vermont has seen a total net gain of about 3,000 people through migration.

Nearly half of all people who moved out of Vermont in 2022 headed elsewhere in the northeastern United States, with more than a third relocating across the border to a neighboring state. This was also true for people moving into Vermont—more than a third moved from New York, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Nine states made the Top 10 lists of both where Vermonters were moving to and where they were coming from.

These patterns are not new. Many of the same states have been on Vermont’s top in- and out-migration lists since the data were first collected, and there’s been significant overlap between the two lists every year.

Because of this overlap, the net migration between states is usually low. For example, while over 1,000 people moved between California and Vermont in 2022, Vermont’s population dropped by only 10.

For all of the focus on migration, an important fact is often overlooked: The vast majority of Vermonters stay put. Only about 3 percent of people moved out in 2022, which has been the pattern for 30 years.

The IRS data on income undercut an often repeated claim that the wealthy are fleeing the state. In fact, wealthy Vermonters move away every year. But wealthy residents from other states also move in every year. From 2012 to 2022, Vermont had a net gain in filers with income of $200,000 or more in all but one year. In 2022, for every three filers in that income bracket who left the state, five moved in. Based on the most recent data, Vermont saw net gains among filers with income of $50,000 or more and net losses among filers earning less than $50,000. Just over half of the filers who moved out of the state earned under $50,000.

This pattern was more pronounced with millennial filers: Most of the growth from migration in this age range came from households that earned $100,000 or more.

Half of all filers who moved into the state in 2022 were 26 to 44 years old, an age range closely matching the millennial generation. Using exemptions as a proxy, it appears some in that age group arrived with children, but we can’t tell how many.

Notably, the state saw a net decrease in only one age bracket: filers under 26. While a couple of thousand young Vermonters left the state, about 1,800 moved in, resulting in a net drop of roughly 500 people in their early 20s—similar to moving patterns over the preceding decade. In all other age brackets—from young professionals to seniors—Vermont saw population growth from migration. But millennial filers accounted for the largest share of overall growth.

Recently released IRS data from tax filings in 2022 provide new information about people moving in and out of Vermont. For the third year in a row, the state continued to see more filers enter than leave. Two of these years of growth occurred during the COVID pandemic—2021 and 2022.

A recent report by the Joint Fiscal Office shows that Vermont’s 2024 livable wage was nearly $19 an hour—exceeding the state minimum wage by almost $5. Vermont defines livable wage as the hourly earnings necessary for a single person working full time and living in shared housing to meet their basic needs. The gap was the largest in a decade, making it harder for workers to make ends meet.

While the state’s minimum wage increased from 2022 to 2024, it did not keep up with rising costs or wages in neighboring states. The minimum wage increased again at the start of 2025, but not enough to close the gap. At the new rate of $14.01 per hour, a full-time minimum wage earner is still nearly $10,000 in the hole each year. And the minimum wage does not even cover all workers. The tipped minimum wage is set at half the standard minimum wage, and agricultural workers can earn even less.

For over three years—from July 2021 to July 2024—Vermont had more than two job openings for every person looking for work. Over the same period, the state’s unemployment rate remained under 3.5 percent, among the lowest in the country. At the state level there are no details about the types of jobs available or the levels of pay, information that might help explain why more Vermonters have not rejoined the workforce since the pandemic.

The labor force participation rate for men has been gradually falling for the last 20 years, although it has regained some ground since declining during the pandemic. Meanwhile, the rate for women held relatively steady between 2003 and 2013, before beginning to decline. Women’s participation has similarly recovered since the pandemic, but still not to pre-Great Recession levels. For both men and women, Vermont has typically maintained higher participation rates than the U.S. as a whole. And while Vermont has one of the smallest gender wage gaps in the country, women still earn less than men.

Vermont’s average wages have trailed the nation’s for decades, while prices are average. That wage lag is driven by two factors: Wages for many jobs in Vermont are lower than for the same jobs in other states; and very highly paid workers in just a handful of states pull up the national figure. In fact, most states’ wages are lower than the average. But Vermont has one of the biggest gaps between wages and prices. In many states, wages correspond more closely to prices.

Vermont’s real household income grew 7.8 percent from 2019 through 2023. While that was the sharpest rise in the country, Vermont still ranked 17th in household income, up from a ranking of 26th in 2019 but still behind most of the other states in the region. For most Vermonters, household income is the sum of the wages earned by members of the household, so this increase may reflect an increase in household size rather than real gains. For wealthier Vermonters, a greater share of income is unearned, from sources such as investments.

Wages have not kept up with economic growth over the last two decades. While recent wage growth has made up some ground in the last few years, particularly at the low end of the scale, the preceding years of stagnant wages mean that many Vermonters are still struggling to afford their basic needs.

Wages have not kept up with economic growth over the last two decades. While recent wage growth has made up some ground in the last few years, particularly at the low end of the scale, the preceding years of stagnant wages mean that many Vermonters are still struggling to afford their basic needs.

The consumer price index (CPI) is probably the best-known inflation indicator. It tracks changes in the cost of what is called a “market basket” of goods and services, which include food, energy, shelter, clothing, medical care, and transportation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issues the index, as well as price changes for individual components, nationally and by region monthly.

Nearly 3,500 Vermonters were identified as homeless in January 2024, one of the highest per capita rates in the country and triple the number before the pandemic. During the pandemic, the state used federal relief funds to house people in motels, which had few guests at that time, and changed the eligibility rules so that more people qualified for assistance. When federal pandemic-related housing aid ended in the spring of 2023, the state returned to pre-Covid eligibility rules. Since then the state has extended shelter programs multiple times for eligible groups. But it put in place additional limits in July 2024, resulting in the eviction of over 1,500 people from shelter in the fall of 2024. A more expansive seasonal shelter program is in effect from December through March.

Vermont’s high housing costs are largely driven by limited supply. New residential housing construction has not kept up with demand in recent years, averaging about 2,200 new units per year since 2019. The Vermont Housing Finance Agency estimates that the state needs nearly 10,000 new units to catch up on the backlog; it will need 3,000 to 5,000 additional units per year between 2025 and 2029 to keep pace with migration to the state, replace aging housing stock, and account for shrinking household size. In addition to limited new construction, other factors are constraining supply. The 2023 floods permanently destroyed 300 units and temporarily damaged 1,300 more. The increasing number of short-term rental properties such as Airbnb or Vrbo units is also contributing to the shortage of permanent units, particularly in certain areas of the state.

Vermont’s high housing costs are largely driven by limited supply. New residential housing construction has not kept up with demand in recent years, averaging about 2,200 new units per year since 2019. The Vermont Housing Finance Agency estimates that the state needs nearly 10,000 new units to catch up on the backlog; it will need 3,000 to 5,000 additional units per year between 2025 and 2029 to keep pace with migration to the state, replace aging housing stock, and account for shrinking household size. In addition to limited new construction, other factors are constraining supply. The 2023 floods permanently destroyed 300 units and temporarily damaged 1,300 more. The increasing number of short-term rental properties such as Airbnb or Vrbo units is also contributing to the shortage of permanent units, particularly in certain areas of the state.

Mortgage costs are way up. For a house at median price in Vermont, a monthly payment leapt 56 percent in the last two years, from about $1,600 in 2021 to over $2,500 in 2023.

Housing costs are a major driver of economic insecurity in Vermont. In 2023, of the 50,000 renter households with incomes under $75,000, nearly two-thirds, or 32,000, spent more than 30 percent of their income on housing—the definition of unaffordability. The same was true for more than half of lower-income homeowners, or 42,000 households.

The consumer price index (CPI) is probably the best-known inflation indicator. It tracks changes in the cost of what is called a “market basket” of goods and services, which include food, energy, shelter, clothing, medical care, and transportation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issues the index, as well as price changes for individual components, nationally and by region monthly.

After growing more slowly than overall inflation from 2021 to 2023, the cost of medical care grew by more than 6 percent from 2023 to 2024. Insurers for small group and individual plans offered on the ACA exchange will impose increases of 11 percent to 23 percent in 2025.

While almost all Vermonters have healthcare coverage, the quality of that coverage varies, and the out-of-pocket costs can still be high. While Medicaid and Dr. Dynasaur provide expansive care with limited out-of-pocket costs for low-income adults and children, seniors on Medicare often purchase a supplemental private plan to pay for care that Medicare does not cover. And Vermonters who get private care through their employers have seen increases in premiums, deductibles, and other out-of-pocket costs in recent years. After growing more slowly than overall inflation from 2021 to 2023, the cost of medical care grew by more than 6 percent from 2023 to 2024. Insurers for small group and individual plans offered on the ACA exchange will impose increases of 11 percent to 23 percent in 2025.

More than 95 percent of Vermonters have healthcare coverage. Public programs provided coverage to 42 percent of Vermonters in 2023, compared with 37 percent of the U.S. as a whole. Much of that difference was driven by Vermont’s older population: A larger share of Vermonters are eligible for Medicare. Meanwhile, 46 percent—just under 300,000 Vermonters—had private coverage through their employers, with an additional 17,000 purchasing coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace. Many low-income Vermonters with Medicare also had Medicaid coverage, but they are counted only under Medicare in this chart. And many older Vermonters purchased supplemental private plans, but they are not included in the private insurance count. Vermont ranked fifth for coverage among the states, although at least 90 percent of residents have coverage in all but 14 states.

More than 10 percent of Vermonters accessed 3SquaresVT in 2024—about 66,000 people. That share has been consistent since before the pandemic. What has varied is the benefit amount those recipients have gotten each month. During the peak of Covid, 2021 to 2023, the per-person monthly benefit was over $200, peaking at $260 in 2022. In 2024, after federal Covid relief funds ended, it dropped back to just over $150, meaning Vermonters have nearly $650 less per year to cover food costs than they did in 2023. The cost of food has not tracked overall inflation. While inflation was highest in 2021 and 2022, food prices saw much bigger spikes in 2022 and 2023 and little change in 2024.

More than half of single adults in Vermont, with kids or without, cannot afford to meet their basic needs. Even many two-earner households fall short. Meanwhile, the wealthiest Vermonters have over $1 million left annually after covering their needs.

The state budget reflects our priorities. Healthcare and pre-K-through-12 public education each account for about a third of the total state budget. But the other policies and programs that help make Vermont affordable—like cash assistance, food programs, childcare subsidies, and housing support—together account for only 10 percent. That means reasonable, targeted investments in these areas can make a big, immediate difference to Vermonters struggling to afford their basic needs.