Let’s learn from the newcomers

There has been a certain amount of hand-wringing for the last decade or so about how many rich people and young people are moving in and out of Vermont. Migration data compiled by the Internal Revenue Service are at the heart of the debate, which invariably focuses on the people leaving. Why don’t we pay more attention to the new arrivals, including the thousands of international immigrants who have settled in Vermont but aren’t counted by the IRS? They could tell us something about how to improve life for all Vermonters.

The IRS information comes from federal tax returns. The agency tracks the addresses from which returns are filed. Since early 1993 the IRS has been publishing reports showing the movement of tax filers each year from state to state and county to county. The reports for each state include the number of filers, who might be single or married couples; total exemptions claimed (including children), which serves as a proxy for the number of people; and total income. The IRS data also tell us the income and age brackets of the primary filers. For each bracket, we know how many people moved in, moved out, or stayed put.

As we’ve reported before, for about 25 years the number of people moving in from other states and Vermonters moving out has been pretty consistent—roughly 15,000 or 16,000 in each direction every year. Before the Great Recession, Vermont’s net annual migration was mostly positive—about 370 a year on average. From 2008 to 2016, Vermont lost an average of about 1,060 people a year, according to the tax returns.

U.S. Census population estimates add to the picture with international migration: More than 8,500 people from outside the U.S. came to Vermont between 2010 and 2018—over 1,000 people a year on average.

The Legislature’s Joint Fiscal Office (JFO) recently published a report based on the age and income migration data, which includes some caveats about the limitations of the information, especially the information on income. The report reiterates one thing we’ve known for years, though: Rich people are not fleeing the state—or at least they didn’t from 2012 to 2016, the years the report covers.

So we know a lot about the numbers: how many migrated, what their income brackets were, where they came from, where they went.

What we don’t know from any of the data, however, is why. Particularly, why the people who moved to Vermont decided to come. Rather than speculate about who’s leaving, wouldn’t it be more helpful to study those who have decided to move here?

Vermont is appropriating $500,000 over three years to try to attract people who want to work remotely for businesses or organizations based in other states. Grants of up to $5,000 a year are available to cover moving and other expenses for these workers who establish residence in Vermont. At $5,000 per grant, the program could draw 100 families by 2021.

What if we used that money instead to learn from the people who are choosing to make Vermont their home and raise their families here? Ask them what drew them here:  our good schools, our beautiful mountains and lakes, our microbreweries and organic farms, our close-knit communities? Once we find out, we could improve on the things they find most attractive about the state and promote those state assets.

Building on Vermont’s strengths will not only make Vermont a more attractive place to move. It will make life better for those who are still here: for all Vermonters—not just a lucky handful who get a $5,000 grant.