Attracting new Vermonters

Vermont is # 1 in people moving here! But wait, aren’t we losing people at an alarming rate?

Those were the dueling narratives just in the past week or so in the governor’s inaugural address and in the news from the 2018 National Mover’s Study by United Van Lines.

If you listened to the governor yesterday, you’d think busloads of Vermonters were heading out of state every day. This administration has been suggesting that Vermont’s biggest problem is demographics: not enough workers, jobs, taxpayers, or children in schools.

Meanwhile, the United Van Lines study looked at their moves in and out of each state in 2018 and reported that Vermont had the largest share in the country of moves into the state as compared with moves out.  While that made for a good headline, the study looked only at United Van Lines’ customers, which added up to 234 moves in 2018. It’s not a representative sample of the more than 15,000 people who come and go each year.

The truth is somewhere in between.

First of all, Vermont does not have a demographic crisis. There’s no big exodus of rich people or young people. While those under 35 are more likely to move than other age groups, roughly the same numbers move in as move out.  And the same holds true across income levels: As many high-income people move in as move out. Ditto middle-income people and low-income people.

Public Assets examines this indicator in our annual State of Working Vermont report.  The Internal Revenue Service tracks tax filers coming and going state by state and provides a breakdown by age and income—a much more comprehensive and reliable picture of what’s happening with Vermont migration.

The news is not bad. In any given year, the vast majority of Vermonters—over 96 percent on average— stay put. In the most recent data from tax year 2016, about 16,000 moved out of Vermont and roughly 15,000 moved in. Since 2005 Vermont has seen a small net loss of people each year. But going back to 1993, the average numbers of those coming and those going have been almost identical. And according to the Census, Vermont’s population has grown by over 60,000 people, or nearly 11 percent, over the last three decades.

That said, it would be great to attract more people to Vermont, especially to communities outside of Chittenden County, and to keep more people here.

But the solutions the governor has proposed—voluntary family and medical leave, increased pupil-teacher ratios in Vermont schools, and reduced education spending—are not the way to do it. Instead, Vermont needs to make investments in those things that make people want to live here. To attract workers, raise the minimum wage and require every employer to do its part for paid family and medical leave. Yes, expand early care and learning but also invest in communities and schools—pre-K through higher education.  Clean up lakes and rivers without taking the money from affordable housing. Ensure that the environmental protections in Act 250 remain robust.

In Montpelier and in the media, those who come and go get the most attention, especially those who leave Vermont. Vermont offers well-publicized cash incentives to get people to move to the state and designs tax policy to avoid scaring off high-income taxpayers.

But like so many things, the truth is a little more nuanced than what will fit in a headline or a speech. Vermont is not #1 in getting people to move here, but we’re also not losing young people in droves or scaring off the wealthy.  So instead of making policy around splashy headlines, we can work to build the Vermont we want—a Vermont that is welcoming and that works for everyone who lives here.  Then we can enjoy watching the arrival of new Vermonters who want all that this state has to offer.