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Introduction

Big challenges confronted Vermont in 2023. Much of the state was inundated by the second “100-year” flood in a dozen years. Meteorologists recorded 2023 as the hottest year on record. New variants of Covid kept arising, and pandemics are predicted to become more frequent. Problems we faced before Covid are still with us: poverty, food insecurity, shortages of affordable housing and childcare. And the pandemic seems to have made some problems worse, such as inadequate mental health services, especially for children.

During the pandemic, billions of dollars poured into Vermont from Washington. Some went directly to Vermonters in the form of supplemental unemployment benefits, food relief, child tax credits, and economic stimulus payments. Billions more flowed through state and local governments, first to fight the pandemic and then to rebuild infrastructure under the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA).

New problems like climate disasters demand new resources

These funds prevented what could have been a deep, lasting recession and reduced child poverty nationally from 2020 to 2021 by 46 percent. More recently, after the July 2023 flood, Vermonters were able to tap aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, to help rebuild their homes and their lives.

But now the federal pandemic aid is drying up—and so, thankfully, have the floodwaters. We learned from the pandemic that government can do a great deal not just to ease the pain of crises but also to prevent the ups and downs of ordinary life from becoming crises. Government help is good for people and for the economy.

It would be a mistake to ignore that lesson and return to the way Vermont raised and spent money before the pandemic. And we don’t have to. Vermont has the resources and know-how to address its problems.

For at least 30 years, Vermont’s revenue policy has been to “manage to the money”—work within whatever amount the state collects at current tax rates. It’s a passive approach that has rarely acknowledged the need for new taxes and ignores the changing demands on government.

Old problems grow more severe and expensive the longer they’re neglected. And new problems that the state didn’t face 10, 20, or 30 years ago, like the damaging effects of climate change and more frequent pandemics, demand new resources. Even after the devastation caused by Tropical Storm Irene, neither the governor nor the Legislature asked Vermonters for anything more in taxes. Instead, they expected government to absorb the cost of responding to the disaster, drawing from funds already allocated for other state services.

The state should raise enough revenue to meet the statutory purpose of the state budget: “to address the needs of the people of Vermont in a way that advances human dignity and equity.” 1 The statute goes on to say that Vermont’s tax and spending policies are supposed “to promote economic well-being … and a vibrant economy,” advance the state’s policy goals, and “recognize every person’s need for health, housing, dignified work, education, food, social security, and a healthy environment.”

Raise necessary revenue to address needs in a way that advances human dignity and equity

Vermonters can take pride in the state’s history of support for education, health care for low- income families, environmental protection, and other public investments. In its 2023 session, the Vermont Legislature built on the progress made during the pandemic and began to invest robustly in family economic security, childcare, and reducing childhood hunger. It expanded the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit and committed $125 million annually to expand access to high-quality childcare and make it more affordable.

These are encouraging steps. But poverty is still too high, too many Vermonters are homeless, and people and property are increasingly vulnerable to climate disasters. There is more to be done. Raising money fairly and investing it wisely, the state can address Vermonters’ needs and promote dignity and equity.

Moving forward requires setting goals and priorities. And to map where the state wants to go and how to get there, policymakers need to determine first where we are. State of Working Vermont 2023 can help them draw that map.

The Data

As in previous years, this report uses data from the U.S. Census—primarily one-year estimates from the American Community Survey—as indicators of Vermonters’ well-being. It also relies on data from the Vermont Department of Labor, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and other sources. With Census indicators, we compare data from 2019, the most recent year unaffected by the Covid pandemic, with 2022 data, the most recent available. Where 2023 data are available from other sources, we have included them.

The American Community Survey did not publish state-level estimates for 2020. And labor market statistics were hard to interpret as businesses closed and reopened. But by 2022 the data appear to reflect real trends rather than short-term, anomalous changes.

This report also looks at how Vermont has been doing relative to other states. Where comparisons are useful, the report provides Vermont’s national rankings. A ranking of 1 is the best, with 50 being the worst.

Key of Vermont’s national rankings

 

Workers and Jobs

Vermont’s private employers created jobs at a record pace—the fastest in more than 20 years—between March 2021 and March 2023, after Covid vaccines became available and people returned to work.

The unemployment rate stayed low. It remained below 2 percent through the summer months and at the close of 2023 had risen only to 2.2 percent—about 7,700 people without jobs. Despite the strong job market, by the end of 2023 Vermont’s labor force had not quite returned to pre-pandemic levels. The tight labor market meant that most Vermonters looking for work were able to find it while employers struggled to fill jobs.

Vermont’s workforce remained whiter, older, and more educated than the rest of the nation’s, even as the state has become more racially diverse in the past decade.

Gender made a difference in the trends. A greater share of men than women dropped out of the labor force during Covid, and men stayed out at higher rates. Ranking the states, the proportion of working-age men active in the Vermont workforce dropped from the top half in 2019 to the bottom quarter in 2022. The proportion of women in the labor force rose from 11th place to 7th.

Jobs Added and Lost

Jobs Added and Lost

Employers create and eliminate thousands of jobs every year. When the Vermont Department of Labor reports the monthly or annual change in jobs, that is the net number: total jobs added minus total jobs lost. Net job growth is an important indicator, but the gross numbers provide additional insight into the pace at which employers create jobs; the source of new jobs, whether existing businesses or startups; and the number of jobs lost as a result of business closures.

Thousands of Vermonters lost jobs practically overnight when the Covid-19 pandemic forced businesses to close in the spring of 2020. Then, as vaccines became available and people grew more comfortable in public spaces, Vermont employers moved relatively quickly to staff up. From March 2021 through March 2022, private employers added more than 32,500 jobs. That was the largest number created in a 12-month period since at least the early 1990s and about 50 percent more than employers had created in an average year. Between March 2022 and March 2023, Vermont’s private sector again added close to 30,000 jobs, 35 percent of them by startup businesses, which was also a record.

Job Openings

Labor Force Statistics

The average number of Vermonters working in 2023 didn’t quite reach pre-pandemic levels, but it was close—down by about 1 percent. The number of unemployed in 2023 fell below the 2019 number, but again the difference was small. Vermont’s 2023 unemployment rate was 2.1 percent, the same as the 2019 rate and well below the U.S. rate of 3.6 percent.

Labor Force Statistics

Each month the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department of Labor report four key statistics about the labor force, which are based on household surveys:

  • Labor force: people employed and unemployed.
  • Employed: payroll workers, farmworkers, and the self- employed.
  • Unemployed: people not employed who have actively looked for work in the previous four weeks.
  • Unemployment rate: number of people employed as a percentage of the labor force.

Labor Force Demographics

Labor Force Participation Rate

Young women dropped out of the labor force during Covid but had largely gone back to work by the end of 2022. Women 25 and older mostly remained in the labor force through the pandemic and through 2022. Men in all age groups dropped out of the labor force during Covid and had not returned by 2022.

Labor Force Participation Rate

The labor force comprises people who are employed and those who are unemployed and actively looking for work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of working-age people (16 and over) who are in the labor force.

County Employment

Progress

Several Vermont economic indicators were pointing in the right direction:

  • Wages were up among the lowest-paid workers.
  • The poverty rate dropped.
  • The percentage of Vermonters with health insurance inched up, taking Vermont from fourth to third in national ranking.
  • 3SquaresVT benefits increased.

One indicator showed slight erosion, although Vermont did well relative to the rest of the country:

  • The pay gap between women and men grew slightly. Women earned 89 cents to a man’s dollar in
    2022, compared with 91 cents in 2019. Still, Vermont kept its place as the state with the highest income equality by gender.

Real Median Household Income

Gender Gap

Gender Gap

One measure of pay disparity between men and women is the median income for full-time, year- round workers. It is often expressed as the amount of income the typical female worker receives for each dollar received by the typical male worker.

The income gap between Vermont women and men was the smallest in the country before the pandemic, and it was still the smallest in 2022. Nevertheless, women lost some ground in the interim. Median income for a full-time, year-round female worker in 2022 was $54,972; her male counterpart earned $61,551. Calculated another way, the median female worker earned 89 cents for each dollar earned by the median male worker. Before the pandemic, however, women were earning 91 cents for each dollar men received.

Hourly Wages by Percentile

Health Insurance Coverage

Health Insurance Coverage

Health insurance coverage is the percentage of the population with health insurance, privately or publicly funded, or both. The U.S. Census has been tracking coverage since 2008 by many demographics, including employment status.

More than 96 percent of Vermont residents had health insurance in 2022, putting Vermont in third place nationally. Approximately 25,000 Vermonters did not have health insurance. In addition, many of those with insurance did not have adequate coverage. The 2021 Vermont Household Health Insurance Survey found 38 percent of Vermonters up to age 65 were underinsured, which was defined as having excessive out-of-pocket medical expenses or high deductibles. 2

Supplemental Poverty Measure

Refundable Tax Credits

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Child Tax Credit (CTC) greatly reduce poverty for working families.3 Those eligible for the federal EITC also get the state credit, which is a percentage of the federal. In 2021 the federal EITC for filers without children was temporarily increased and eligibility expanded with Covid relief funds.

In 2022, the Vermont Legislature enacted a Child Tax Credit to families with young children. Families with incomes up to $125,000 are eligible for a $1,000 annual credit for each child under age 6. Smaller credits are available to families with incomes between $125,000 and $175,000.

Refundable tax credits

Refundable tax credits are used to reduce personal income taxes; if the credit is more than the taxes due, the taxpayer receives the difference as a tax refund. Vermont’s Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), which supplements the federal EITC and is available to low- and moderate-income working families and individuals, is a refundable credit. The Vermont Child Tax Credit (CTC), which can be claimed for each child under 6, was adopted in 2022 and is also refundable.

3SquaresVT Assistance

Challenges

Some problems that Vermont faced before the pandemic persisted in 2022 and 2023:

  • Poverty came down, but almost 50,000 Vermonters were trying to survive below the poverty level after the pandemic started to subside.
  • The state’s rate of homelessness was the second highest in the country in 2023.
  • Families still struggled to make ends meet, especially those led by single parents.

Some problems got worse during the pandemic, like the shortage of childcare slots.

Basic Needs

Childcare Capacity

Childcare Capacity

Childcare capacity is the number of slots licensed providers and registered homes have available for infants, toddlers, preschoolers, and school-age children, as reported to the Department for Children and Families. Desired capacity differs from the licensed capacity set by the state and more accurately reflects the number of children that childcare facilities can accommodate.

The pandemic took a toll on childcare in Vermont. In November 2023, there were 182 fewer active childcare providers than four years earlier, a decrease of more than 16 percent. Between the loss of providers and a decline in slots among remaining providers, the state reported about 3,315 fewer slots, a drop of 11 percent. The decrease was seen across the state, except in Chittenden County, where capacity increased about 4 percent, or just over 400 slots.

Poverty by Race

Homelessness

Homelessness

The point-in-time homeless count is a measure of the number of people living in emergency shelters, hotels, transitional housing, and places not meant for human habitation. It does not include households doubled up with family or friends. The figure is based on a census taken each year in one 24-hour period in January. Vermont housing organizations conduct the survey using methods established by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Almost 3,330 Vermonters were homeless in 2023, according to the annual count done in January for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). As a percentage of the population, Vermont had the second-highest rate of homelessness in the country. Thanks to federal pandemic-era aid to the states, 96 percent of people in Vermont experiencing homelessness were provided temporary shelter, the highest percentage among the states. However, on June 1, 2023, as federal aid winded down, Vermont evicted nearly 800 people from emergency shelter.5 According to HUD, the number of homeless Vermont families with children rose more than 200 percent in the wake of the Covid pandemic, from 372 in 2020 to 1,166 in 2023. That was the biggest increase for families with children among the states. The state continues to grapple with Vermonters’ needs for both temporary and permanent housing.

Covid Hospitalizations

Capacity for Investment

The share of income going to the top 1 percent of Vermonters has increased steadily for more than 40 years, creating income inequality that the state hasn’t seen in generations.

State and local taxes have amounted to about the same percentage of Vermonters’ incomes for more than three decades. This is despite new challenges such as climate-related disasters that demand far greater revenue than the state needed in the past.

Vermont’s tax system remains regressive at the top, although it is one of the least regressive in the U.S. The state’s top 5 percent pay a smaller share of their income in taxes than their lower-income counterparts.

It is a state responsibility to ensure that everyone who lives in Vermont has enough to feel secure in their housing, food, healthcare, and transportation. It is the role of the state to maintain and improve roads and bridges, to clean up and protect rivers and lakes, to give all our children the best education, to care for our sick and elderly, and to promote racial and social equity.

Policymakers should raise needed revenue fairly and spend it wisely for the benefit of all the people who live in Vermont.

Vermont has the capacity to address its current challenges and invest for a better future.

Income Inequality

Income of top 1%

The top 1 percent had adjusted gross income (AGI) of $4.6 billion in 2022. The state General Fund budget was about half that—$2.3 billion in fiscal 2022. The top 1 percent included 3,281 filers with AGI of $520,500 and higher. The average income for this group of filers was about $1.4 million—nearly 20 times Vermont’s median household income. 

Not only has this group’s share of total income been increasing for decades, but federal tax cuts over the last 40 years have also disproportionately benefited the rich. The federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, a law that is still in effect, has yielded hundreds of millions of dollars for the top 1 percent of Vermonters since its passage. A 5 percent surcharge on the income of this group would yield $230 million for additional public investment in Vermont—about 10 percent of General Fund spending. 

State and Local Taxes as a Percentage of Personal Income

Tax Progressivity

While still not totally progressive, Vermont’s tax system is less regressive than it was five years ago and less regressive than most other states’ systems. Vermont was one of six states, including Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, Maine, and California, plus the District of Columbia, whose tax systems lessen income inequality.7 In most states, low- and moderate-income people pay a larger share of their income in taxes than do the top 1 percent of taxpayers. In recent years Vermont has increased progressivity by curbing some tax breaks that favor people with higher incomes and instituting tax credits for lower-income residents.

Tax Progressivity

Progressive tax systems impose higher rates on those with more income and lower rates on those with less income. Regressive systems tax the poor more heavily than the rich. Vermont has adopted various mechanisms to make its systems more progressive: an income tax with higher rates on higher income; sales tax exemptions on necessities that take a bigger bite of smaller earnings, such as food and medicine; and school taxes based not on property value but on income, which better conforms with ability to pay.

  1. 32 V.S.A. § 306a. Purpose of the State Budget []
  2. Medical expenses, after premiums, of 10 percent or more of household income for households with income equal to or greater than 200 percent of the federal poverty level; expenses greater than 5 percent of household income for households below 200 percent of the federal poverty level; or deductibles equal to or greater than 5 percent of household income. []
  3. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/research/eitc-and-child-tax-credit-promote-work-reduce-poverty-and-support-childrens-development []
  4. 3SquaresVT benefits are based on the USDA’s Thrifty Food Plan. Vermont’s Joint Fiscal Office uses the USDA’s Moderate Food Plan in determining the state’s Basic Needs Budgets. []
  5. https://vtdigger.org/2023/06/01/after-last-ditch-legal-effort-fails-hundreds-of-unhoused-vermonters-are-evicted-from-motel-program/ []
  6. Jeffrey P. Thompson and Elias Leight, “Do Rising Top Income Shares Affect the Incomes or Earnings of Low and Middle-Income Families?” (Washington: Federal Reserve Board, 2012). []
  7. Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, “Who Pays? A Distributional Analysis of the Tax Systems in All 50 States” (2024), 14, https://itep.org/whopays/ []

 

State of Working Vermont 2023 was created in conjunction with the Economic Policy Institute in Washington D.C. and was funded in part by the Annie E. Casey Foundation and the J. Warren and Lois McClure Foundation, a supporting organization of the Vermont Community Foundation. We thank them for their support but acknowledge that the findings presented in this report are those of the Public Assets Institute and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of our partners.

 

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