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Public Assets Institute, PO Box 942, Montpelier, Vermont 05601.

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Update October 2008

In this issue:
-- New Residents Come With Higher Incomes
-- Even Lower Revenues?
-- Medicaid Woes Highlight The Budget's Pre-Existing Condition
-- Johnston Headlines a Timely Conference




New Residents Come With Higher Incomes

The latest figures from the Internal Revenue Service show that families who moved to Vermont last year earned more than those who left. The previous year's figures showed similar results.

Families moving here from New Jersey had the highest incomes. Their average income per family member was just over $46,000—nearly $20,000 more than the average for Vermonters who stayed put last year.

For the latest details on people leaving and coming to Vermont in 2007, read our issue brief: 2008 Update: Where They Come From, Where They Go.


Even Lower Revenues?

The governor and legislative members of the Vermont Emergency Board are likely to hear more bad news when they meet in November, two weeks after Election Day. They are scheduled for an update on state revenue collections—the fourth this year—and the betting is that there will be another drop.

In January, April, and July, economists for the administration and the Legislature reduced their projections for how much the state was likely to collect in taxes and other fees for the current fiscal year, which runs from July 2008 to June 2009. A year ago, the estimate was that General Fund and Transportation Fund receipts would total $1.43 billion in fiscal 2009.

The forecast has since declined to $1.36 billion, a drop of more than $70 million. According to the Legislature's Joint Fiscal Office, next month's forecast could be $5 million to $10 million lower still.

So far, Montpelier has responded to the revenue decline by cutting services, reducing the number of state employees, and postponing projects. State officials have rejected consideration of tax increases and have chosen not to tap Vermont's rainy day fund to cover the shortfall.

The next Vermont Emergency Board meeting is scheduled for 2:00 p.m., Nov. 18, 2008, in the fifth-floor conference room of the Pavilion Office Building on State Street in Montpelier. It is open to the public.


Medicaid Woes Highlight
The Budget's Pre-Existing Condition

Washington recently sent two bits of bad news to Vermont's health care budgeters. First, the Vermont State Hospital (VSH) will not be federally recertified. Second, the state's federal Medicaid match rate—the percentage of Vermont's Medicaid costs that Washington pays—will go down next year.

The current budget assumed VSH recertification and the money that would come with it. Without that seal of approval, the state will receive $4.2 million less in federal Medicaid funding this year. For fiscal 2010, the change in the federal match rate and decertification of the hospital could mean a loss of $15 million.

The reduction in federal funding puts new pressure on policymakers, who have relied in recent years on one-time fixes to cover the costs of health care. For more on Medicaid funding problems, read our report: Medicaid Woes Highlight the Budget's Pre-Existing Condition.


Johnston Headlines
A Timely Conference

Feedback has been good for the October 2nd, 2008 conference sponsored by Voices for Vermont's Children and the Public Assets Institute. About 120 people took part in the day-long event, which explored alternatives to traditional economic development policies that have not brought increased prosperity to many Vermonters.

The featured speaker was David Cay Johnston, former New York Times reporter and author of Free Lunch: How the Wealthiest Americans Enrich Themselves at Government Expense (and Stick You with the Bill). Speaking just as Congress and the Bush administration scrambled to respond to the worldwide financial crises, Johnston sharply criticized Washington for rushing in and failing even to consider alternatives to the basic plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

Segments of the conference were recorded by Onion River Community Access Media Inc. (ORCA), Montpelier's public access channel. Videos of the closing panel and powerpoint presentations from a few of the workshops are available here.



Public Assets Institute is funded by grants and donations. Please consider making a tax deductible contribution to support our work.




Fact: Vermont unemployment is up 35 percent over last year—from 13,600 unemployed in September 2007 to 18,300 last month.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor, seasonally adjusted labor force figures,
Oct. 21, 2008




Public Structures Spotlight

Office of Home Heating Fuel
Agency of Human Services, Department of Children and Families, Economic Services Division

Vermont's Seasonal Fuel Assistance Program helps pay for home heating fuel—oil, gas, kerosene, electricity, or wood—for households at or below 125 percent of poverty, with funds from the federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). Launched in Vermont's Department of Social Services in 1981, the program moved to Home Heating Fuel in 1996. Benefits are paid to fuel dealers and step down through the season.

In addition, Vermont's five Community Action Agencies receive subgrants to run the Crisis Fuel Assistance program, for households up to 150 percent of poverty, and manage the ShareHeat and WARMTH programs to help with heating and electricity emergencies for families up to 200 percent of poverty.

During the 2008-2009 heating season, the Office of Home Heating Fuel expects to:
  • process 41,000 applications for assistance (up 26 percent from last year)
  • assist at least 23,848 households (up 10 percent)
Employees: 10 full-time, 6 seasonal (14 FTE)
Fiscal Year 2009 Expenditures*: $37,171,901 (94 percent benefit payments, 4 percent administration, 2 percent grants and inter-agency transfers)
Fiscal Year 2009 Revenues*: $35,059,980 (95 percent LIHEAP, 5 percent carry-forward and refunds from FY08)
*Projected, Oct. 3, 2008; excludes $5.5 million of new LIHEAP funds
More...
Need fuel assistance? Find out more here.
Source: Office of Home Heating Fuel




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Public Assets Institute, PO Box 942, Montpelier, Vermont 05601.