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Update June 2011
In this issue:
-- First Steps for Universal Health Care
-- Spring Rained on Hope for Jobs
-- Coming to a Town Near You
-- High Taxes Don't Kill Jobs
-- With Revenue Increasing, Reconsider the Cuts
First Steps for Universal Health Care
Upon signing Act 48 in late May, Gov. Peter Shumlin set health care reform in motion. Now the board that will develop and oversee Green Mountain Care—the new universal care system—is taking shape. A bi-partisan committee of three policy experts, two state senators, two state representatives, and two gubernatorial appointees will nominate candidates for the governor's review, and he will choose the five regulators, to be announced in October. Those interested in serving can find information here. The application deadline is July 11, 2011.
Spring Rained on Hope for Jobs
While winter job gains signaled the start of an economic recovery, the spring has been disappointing. Vermont lost more non-farm jobs in April and May than in any two-month period since the early 1990s. The losses came after strong job growth during the ski season—so Vermont was left with more jobs, seasonally adjusted, in May than it had last December. But Vermont still needs an additional 18,000 jobs to provide work for those who have entered the labor force or become unemployed since the end of 2007. More on Vermont's labor picture can be found in Public Assets' Monthly Jobs Brief.
Coming to a Town Near You
Public Assets Institute's summer speaking tour is just around the corner. Every year Executive Director Paul Cillo and Senior Analyst Jack Hoffman travel to five communities across Vermont in July and August to speak on education funding, fiscal policy, state services, and the economy. In addition, they will be holding workshops, meeting with community leaders, and talking with local news organizations. So far, we've scheduled stops in South Burlington on July 7; Bellows Falls July 14; Northfield July 21; and Shelburne August 10. Interested in a visit from Public Assets? Contact us.
High Taxes Don't Kill Jobs
We hear it all the time: Cutting taxes creates jobs and high taxes kill them. The nation's experience after the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 should cast doubt on the first claim. The 2000s were the worst decade on record for job creation. Now we have strong evidence to dispel the second claim. Read our latest blog, "Marginal Income Tax Rates: Rhetoric versus Reality," to discover what new research shows.
With Revenue Increasing,
Reconsider the Cuts
State revenues are up. That was the message from the Shumlin administration earlier this month. By the end of May the state had collected $20 million more than was forecast. And soon, on July 21, we'll hear updated forecasts for fiscal 2012 and 2013. In addition to a surplus at the end of this fiscal year, June 30, those new revenue projections will be higher than they were in January. Since the fiscal 2012 budget has already been set, that could mean a surplus next year, as well.
State officials plan to carry forward any surplus to help balance the fiscal 2013 budget, in which a $60 million gap is projected. But if Montpelier continues, as it's been doing, to plan expenditures depending on how much money comes in—rather than decide what services are needed and figure out how to pay for them—then shouldn't they restore some of the cuts they made for fiscal 2012?
A higher revenue forecast will be welcome news. But before the administration and the Legislature set aside even more money for a rainy day, they should take advantage of the sunshine and revisit the cuts they made when they thought the revenue picture was darker.
Public Assets Institute is funded by grants and donations. Please consider making a tax-deductible contribution to support our work.
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Fact: From 1989 to 2009, despite 57 percent real economic growth statewide, median Vermont household income grew only 2 percent.
Data source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey
town2town
bringing fiscal data home
Getting to the Polls
Vermont's voter registration is good: about 90 percent of the voting-age population. But turnout isn't so hot. In the general election last fall, just 54 percent of registered voters cast ballots, according to data collected by the Secretary of State. In individual towns, the turnout ranged from 33 percent to 76 percent. The latest town2town map shows voter turnout as you pass your cursor over each town.
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