Reports
2012: With Federal Protection Gone, Education and Human Services Are in the Crosshairs
If the Legislature does not restore the lost federal funding for education in fiscal 2012, that will mean a further shift onto the property tax. And without increased revenue to restore the human services budget, poor and vulnerable Vermonters will continue to bear the heaviest burden of this recession.
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2011 Budget: Cutting the Commitment to Vermonters
As they wrestle with the recession, Vermont’s elected leaders are backing away from their commitment to citizens. This change in public policy is reflected in their language and in their budgets.
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Migrants to Vermont Have More Income Than Those Who Leave
Fewer people moved into Vermont than out in 2008, but those who moved in had more income per person than those who left the state or stayed put. This has been the trend in Vermont for the last 15 years.
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It’s Raining Hard: Tap the Fund
More than 20 years ago, Vermont had the foresight to establish a rainy day fund to help the state through hard economic times. Today, the Legislature could spare Vermonters additional painful budget cuts and give the state economy a boost if it stopped hoarding this money and used these reserve funds as intended.
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Reducing State Services: The Wrong Fix
Vermont has a revenue problem. The recession has meant less economic activity: Vermonters and Vermont businesses are earning and buying less. This has significantly reduced the amount the state collects, but it has not reduced Vermonters’ need for the court system, highways, schools, food inspections, and other state-funded services.
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State of Working Vermont 2009
The recession dominated Vermont’s economy in 2008, as it did the rest of the country. The state lost jobs at an alarming rate, especially late in the year. Almost 5,000 jobs disappeared in December 2008 alone, Vermont’s biggest monthly loss in nearly 20 years.
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Rescissions: More Information Required
The Legislature’s Joint Fiscal Committee can and should insist that the administration provide a real assessment of the impact of proposed budget cuts on services to Vermonters. Until they have that assessment, which is required by law, the legislators should refuse to give the plan the go-ahead.
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A Cost Shift to the Education Fund: Smaller is Better
Vermont property taxpayers dodged a bullet this year. The Legislature blocked the governor from transferring the cost of teachers’ retirement to the Education Fund. Had the governor succeeded, in two or three years local voters would have faced big property tax increases or deep cuts to their education programs.
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A Balanced Way to Balance the Budget
In the end, the Vermont Legislature found a balanced solution to balancing the state budget for fiscal year 2010, which begins July 1. After a gubernatorial veto-the first budget veto in the state’s history-and a dramatic override in a special session on June 2, lawmakers put in place a budget that uses a combination of cuts and taxes to cover part of the drop in revenues.
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Vermont Modernizes its Unemployment Insurance
Governor Douglas signed Act 54 on June 1, 2009. Vermont joins 24 other states to date that have made legislative changes to modernize their UI programs.
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Can’t Beat Florida’s Weather—But Property Taxes Are Another Matter
Vermonters usually cite two reasons for moving to Florida: weather and taxes. For those who want to avoid snow and cold, the Sunshine State is the clear choice. For those looking to reduce their taxes, Florida may not be the haven it seems.
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Vermonters Would Pay More with Governor’s Budget Cuts
In proposing his latest budget to the Legislature, Governor Douglas says he will show a balanced state budget with a minimal increase in taxes. But his plan is obsessively focused on reducing the General Fund bottom line, the most visible part of state spending, while hiding other costs-and ignoring other needs-of Vermonters.
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Federal Tax Cuts
REPORT. Jack Hoffman (April 2009)
Vermonters will save more than $490 million in federal taxes in the next two years through the economic stimulus provisions in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
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Keeping an Eye on Vermont’s Stimulus Funds
REPORT. Reenie De Geus (April 2009)
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)–the federal stimulus plan–is intended to kick-start job growth in the short term while building the foundation for future economic prosperity. Since the plan involves a large sum of federal money distributed in a short period of time–Vermont will receive more than $1.2 billion over the next two years–it will be a test of democracy, transparency, and accountability.
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Unemployment Reform: Do the Job Now
REPORT. Jack Hoffman and Reenie De Geus (March 2009)
Vermont could get almost $14 million in federal money to help laid-off workers if it reforms its unemployment insurance law to provide new or expanded jobless benefits.
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The Stimulus Package: Fixing Problems Now Can Help Vermont Face its Bigger Problems
REPORT. Jack Hoffman (February 2009)
The federal aid won’t solve the budget problems that have been dogging Vermont for nearly two decades. To make the best use of this one-time money, elected officials need to incorporate these hundreds of millions of federal dollars into a five-year plan to restore fiscal stability to the state. And they need to be thinking even longer-term than that.
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Medicaid Math
ISSUE BRIEF. Steven Kappel (February 2009)
When is a dollar only worth 40 cents? When the state cuts Medicaid spending. When does saving 40 cents cost Vermonters a dollar? When the state cuts Medicaid spending.
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Health Care Reform: Obama and Vermont Are Moving in the Same Direction
REPORT. Steven Kappel (December 2008)
For nearly 20 years, Vermont has been a national leader in health care reform. Further progress in Vermont—especially when it involves integrating Medicare beneficiaries and funds into a new system—will require cooperation from the federal government. The compatibility of Obama’s and Vermont’s visions greatly improves the odds that cooperation will be forthcoming.
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The State of Working Vermont 2008
REPORT. Jack Hoffman and Doug Hoffer. (December 2008)
Officially, the economy was still growing in 2007, but it probably didn’t feel that way to many Vermonters. There was no job growth. After adjusting for inflation, the median wage dropped for Vermont workers, and median household income declined as well. Only workers at the top of the pay scale saw real gains in their wages. Meanwhile, the cost of basic necessities, particularly food and energy, climbed sharply.
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Recessions Past: What Worked Then Can Work Again
REPORT. Jack Hoffman (December 2008)
Major recessions like the one we’re in demand wrenching decisions: how to balance maintaining needed government services, especially for the most vulnerable, against taxpayers’ ability to support those services. The country has faced two other big recessions in the last 25 years—in the early 1980s and in the early 1990s—and Vermont’s response to those downturns is instructive about what the state can do this time.
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Medicaid Woes Highlight Budget’s Pre-Existing Condition
REPORT. Steven Kappel and Paul Cillo (October 2008)
With Vermont health care costs growing at about 8 percent each year and state revenues growing at less than 3 percent, the state cannot come close to paying for current services in the short term without severe cuts to Medicaid, cuts to other areas of the state budget, or new revenue. In the long term, the state needs to enact system reform that can slow health care cost growth rates.
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2008 Update: Where They Come From, Where They Go
ISSUE BRIEF. Jack Hoffman (October 2008)
Families who moved to Vermont last year earned more than those who left. For the latest details on people leaving and coming to Vermont in 2007, read our issue brief.
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Beyond Belt-Tightening
Jack Hoffman (August 2008)
If the administration and the Legislature stick to the fiscal policy they have followed in recent years, Vermonters will be forced to forgo more than $100 million in government services next year. The public won’t know the details until the budget reaches the Legislature at the start of the next session. But one thing is certain: $100 million is not the kind of gap that can be closed with a little “belt-tightening.”
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Rising Energy Costs Plague State Government, Too
Paul Cillo and Doug Hoffer (August 2008)
Like families and businesses, Vermont’s state government uses energy to heat and light buildings and fuel vehicles and equipment. And each year the cost of energy is taking a bigger bite out of the budget.
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2009 Budget: Election-Year Caution Postpones Facing Trouble Ahead
Jack Hoffman (June 2008)
According to the latest projections, the Legislature appropriated about $13 million more than the state is expected to collect in General Fund taxes and other revenues next year. In the scheme of things, the shortfall is small — 1 percent of General Fund spending. And a small surplus at the end of the current year is expected to cover that deficit. But the deficit is a sign of troubles to come if Vermont continues on its current path.
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No New Taxes, but…
Jack Hoffman (June 2008)
Despite a pattern of declining state revenues, the administration and the Legislature managed to avoid raising taxes in an election year — at least taxes that are likely to affect a broad range of voters. That won’t mean, though, that some people won’t be paying more for certain government services. General Fund revenues are expected to increase nearly $10 million as a result of actions by the Legislature.
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Measuring Economic Development: What Do Subsidies Buy?
by Jack Hoffman (June 2008)
The Vermont Legislature is taking another run at figuring out what the state is getting for all of its economic development efforts. Existing laws that would enable evaluation have been ignored for years.
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Economic Stimulus Needs New Money, Fast
Jack Hoffman (May 2008)
An analysis of the governor’s “economic stimulus” plan reveals that there is little new money in the proposal, and many of the business breaks are unlikely to produce the increase in demand that is needed right now.
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Some Necessities Cost More, Others Don’t
Paul Cillo and Doug Hoffer (May 2008)
Vermonters’ median income kept ahead of inflation during the decade from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. That should have produced more buying power for the average person. But the cost of big ticket items — health insurance, gasoline, heating fuel, and housing — all rose faster than Vermonters’ incomes.
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Vermont’s 2009 Budget: The State Should Step In, Not Step Back
Jack Hoffman and Paul Cillo (March 2008)
The state budget is more than a list of spending priorities for the ensuing year. It’s a critical policy document that shapes where Vermont will be next year, the year after, and five or 10 years from now. The state’s political leaders have a responsibility to recast the budget debate so that average Vermonters — and even lawmakers who are not on the Legislature’s Appropriations Committees — can join the discussion about where the state is headed, how it should treat its citizens, and what kinds of services it should provide.
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School-Budget Voters Are Minding Their Own Purse Strings
Deb Brighton and Jack Hoffman (February 2008)
Vermont’s 10-year-old school funding system has helped to reduce disparities between property-rich and property-poor towns, and it has done so without encouraging the overspending that had been predicted.
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Where They Come From; Where They Go
Jack Hoffman (December 2007)
According to the latest information published by the IRS, more people moved out of Vermont in 2006 than moved in. However, the new arrivals had more income than those who left — on average about 15 percent more per exemption.
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Vermonters’ Incomes Outpaced School Taxes (1996-2006)
Paul Cillo and Jack Hoffman (December 2007)
Even before the Legislature passed a law last session designed to pressure communities to curb the growth of education spending, Vermonters had started to act on their own. Data from the Vermont Education Department show that school spending growth has been slowing for the past four years.
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The Governor’s Budget Release: Earlier is Better
Paul Cillo and Jack Hoffman (December 2007)
Everyone who is part of the state budgeting process needs timely information. The Vermont Legislature can gain precious time for itself — and for the public — by moving up the deadline for the annual release of the governor’s budget.
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The State of Working Vermont 2007
Paul Cillo and Doug Hoffer (September 2007)
An issue brief highlighting Vermont employment, wages, and workforce trends, drawn from 2006 government data. It is produced in cooperation with the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).
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A Citizen’s Guide to the CLA: Vermont’s Common Level of Appraisal Adjustment for School Taxes
Paul Cillo (2006)
An 8-page booklet explaining how the CLA adjustment helps to make the property tax system more fair. This booklet also describes how school taxes can go up even when a town’s school budget doesn’t.
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Analyzing Health Care Reform’s Impact on Working Households: A New Methodology
Deb Brighton and Paul Cillo (December 2006)
This report unveils a new methodology to evaluate the impact of any new health insurance plan on the economic momentum of low-income working households. It then uses this new analytical tool to evaluate Catamount Health, the health insurance plan included in Vermont’s Health Care Affordability Act of 2006, on households that are eligible for this plan.
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Vermont Household Budget Affordability Analysis
Douglas Hoffer and Paul Cillo (October 2006)
An issue brief comparing median and upper income Vermont household expenditures. For the median household, transportation, food, housing, and health care consume over half of the budget. For the upper income household, forty percent of income is left over for discretionary spending.
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Analysis of General Fund Transfer to Education Fund
Paul Cillo (September 2006)
An issue brief showing that the transfer of money from the state General Fund to the Education Fund has been less than required by statute for the past two years. The result: $25 million more in property taxes.
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The State of Working Vermont 2006
Allison Churilla (September 2006)
An issue brief highlighting trends in economic and labor force characteristics of Vermont’s workers produced in cooperation with the Economic Policy Institute’s national report, “The State of Working America 2005/2006.”
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A Citizen’s Guide to School Funding: Vermont’s Act 68
Paul Cillo (3rd Ed., February 2006)
An understandable 24-page guide to Vermont’s school funding system. This booklet also describes how to pay school taxes based on income, and how to calculate homestead tax rates.
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Earning More, Losing Ground
Deborah Brighton and Paul Cillo (February 2005)
A five-year trend analysis of Vermont’s minimum wage, public assistance, and the cost of basic needs (1999-2003).
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